Exchange rate forecast for August. Everything is becoming better. Forecast of the dollar to ruble exchange rate for August. Should you buy the dollar in August?

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the official US dollar exchange rate as of August 9 at 63.5950 rubles. versus 63.5425 rub. on August 8th.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018, expert opinions

Commerzbank experts do not believe in further growth of the dollar against the ruble exchange rate and believe that as long as the pair is trading below 64.28, range trading will prevail.

“The dollar/ruble is again approaching the highs of May, June and July (63.79-64.28),” write the bank’s currency strategists. – “As long as the pair is trading below these levels, the continuation of the sideways trend is most likely with a possible test of the area of ​​passage of the 55-day MA (62.74).

In the event of a break below, the technical target would be the May lows just below 61, with more important support around 60.58/51 (November high and mid-April low). As long as the dollar/ruble exchange rate is above these levels, we remain medium-term bulls.”

What will happen to the ruble due to new US sanctions against Russia

Robert Menendez and Lindsey Graham introduced a bill to expand sanctions against Russia in the US Congress. The importance of this bill is shown by the dynamics of the ruble in recent days - since the beginning of August, the dollar/ruble exchange rate has increased from 62.2 to 63.5. At the same time, the main sales of the ruble came from foreign investors who were concerned about the initiatives of congressmen.

But in August other risks await the national currency, although, according to experts, they will not become critical. “Among the possible risks for the ruble is the aggravation of relations between the United States and China.

The dynamics of prices for “black gold” are also alarming, the expert notes. Since the beginning of August, Brent oil prices have fallen by almost 3 percent, to $72 per barrel. The main reasons for what is happening are the same trade wars and the growth of oil reserves in the United States. In the coming days, it is possible that the Brent price will roll back down to the round mark of $70 per barrel. In this case, the ruble will also be under pressure.

Ruble to dollar exchange rate

Analysts at the American financial giant Citigroup predicted the prospects for the ruble exchange rate if the United States introduces restrictive measures against Russian government debt.

As Bloomberg notes, “additional capital outflows caused by this event could ultimately weaken the ruble.”

However, it is stipulated that Citi experts considered the “worst-case scenario” in which Washington would prohibit foreign investors from buying Russian federal loan bonds. In this case, according to preliminary estimates, the exchange rate of the Russian national currency could collapse by 15% to 73 rubles per dollar.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018, what will happen to the ruble

August is traditionally considered a difficult month for the ruble. Statistics over the past 20 years indicate that this month the national currency showed negative dynamics against the dollar in 70% of cases, noted Nordea Bank analyst Denis Davydov. “However, if we exclude the very dramatic 1998 from observation, then on average the Russian currency during periods of decline lost only about 3% in weight against the dollar. After the ruble began to float freely at the end of 2014, the decline in the Russian currency was noted only in August 2015. However, then oil prices, amid risks of overproduction, fell to levels close to $40 per barrel of Brent,” he added.

In August, the ruble exchange rate continues to be affected by the threat of new sanctions from the United States. The White House has promised to introduce new restrictions by November 6. Binbank believes that if a restriction on transactions with the government debt of the Russian Federation is included in the list, the ruble exchange rate will not be able to avoid a serious fall.

Nevertheless, as the Kommersant newspaper notes, the Russian currency demonstrates a strong character, despite various irritants. The dollar exchange rate on the Russian market has remained in the range of 62–64 rubles/$ for four months. At the same time, much more dramatic changes in oil prices, aggressive statements by American senators about new sanctions, trade wars or currency purchases by the Ministry of Finance do not have the same negative impact on the ruble.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018, expert forecasts. What will happen to the dollar in August 2018: daily forecast

As always, we publish a table with a monthly dollar forecast - this is the dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018 from the APECON agency. It is not always famous for accurate forecasts, but no one can give them. Every daily forecast is a risk of error.

One way or another, in terms of how the current trends may influence the dollar/ruble exchange rate, this table is of interest:

According to experts from the APECON agency, in August there will be nothing out of the ordinary with the dollar-ruble exchange rate. By the end of the month, the rate will be approximately the same as at the beginning.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018 table by day

In July, the dollar showed almost stable dynamics against the ruble. The economy neither grows nor falls, and therefore the Russian currency will remain relatively stable. Some analysts believe the dollar could even weaken slightly in August as Donald Trump wants to see a weaker currency, which benefits US manufacturers.

Dollar exchange rate table for August:

08/01/2018, SR - 63.92 rubles/dollar;

08/02/2018, Thursday - 63.04 rubles/dollar;

08/03/2018, Fri - 62.73 rubles/dollar;

08/04/2018, Sat - 63.04 rubles/dollar;

08/05/2018, sun - 63.45 rubles/dollar;

08/06/2018, Mon - 62.89 rubles/dollar;

08/07/2018, Tue - 62.99 rubles/dollar;

08/08/2018, SR - 63.74 rubles/dollar;

08/09/2018, Thursday - 63.78 rubles/dollar;

08/10/2018, Fri - 64.01 rubles/dollar;

08/11/2018, Sat - 64.23 rubles/dollar;

08/12/2018, sun - 64.25 rubles/dollar;

08/13/2018, Mon - 65.02 rubles/dollar;

08/14/2018, Tue - 64.78 rubles/dollar;

08/15/2018, SR - 64.85 rubles/dollar;

08/16/2018, THU - 65.12 rubles/dollar;

08/17/2018, Fri - 65.23 rubles/dollar;

08/18/2018, Sat - 65.31 rubles/dollar;

08/19/2018, sun - 65.41 rubles/dollar;

08/20/2018, Mon - 65.96 rubles/dollar;

08/21/2018, Tue - 66.19 rubles/dollar;

08/22/2018, Wed - 66.96 rubles/dollar;

08/23/2018, THU - 66.43 rubles/dollar;

08/24/2018, Fri - 66.56 rubles/dollar;

08/25/2018, Sat - 66.43 rubles/dollar;

08/26/2018, sun - 66.87 rubles/dollar;

08/27/2018, Mon - 67.07 rubles/dollar;

08.28.2018, Tue - 68.45 rubles/dollar;

08/29/2018, Wed - 68.98 rubles/dollar;

08/30/2018, THU - 69.12 rubles/dollar;

08/31/2018, Fri - 69.52 rubles/dollar.

How much will the dollar cost in August 2018 in Russia?

August is unlikely to become a crisis for the ruble, experts believe. “The volume of payments on external debt in August is the smallest among other months. According to the Central Bank, it is expected to reach $4.3 billion, which is half the monthly average this year. The trade surplus is likely to remain at $15 billion. The activity of the Ministry of Finance in the foreign exchange market, apparently, will remain the same. The impact of purchases into reserves on the exchange rate is noticeable, but it is important that it will not increase,” said Georgy Vashchenko, head of the operations department on the Russian stock market at Freedom Finance Investment Company.

The price of oil fell sharply amid the risks of trade wars that the United States is waging with other countries, but remained above $70 per barrel of Brent. Most likely, quotes for “black gold” will remain in the range of 70-80 dollars, and the USD/RUB pair will remain in the range of 61-64, he added.

Until the end of August, the ruble will most likely remain in the range of 61-64 against the dollar, Globex Bank trader Sergei Chetverikov also believes.

Dollar exchange rate forecast for the end of 2018 -2019

Economists surveyed by Reuters on average estimate the Russian currency exchange rate in 3 and 6 months at 61.25 rubles per dollar, and after 12 months they expect it to weaken to 62.25 rubles per dollar. Analysts are more pessimistic than the Ministry of Economic Development, which includes the dollar exchange rate of 61 rubles in its official forecast for the current year.

Long-term expectations have also changed over the past month. At the end of 2019, the median forecast for the dollar exchange rate, based on the expectations of nine analysts, is at 62 rubles (previous survey - 59.8 rubles), at the end of 2020 the ruble will weaken to 63 (previous survey - 62.3), and by the end of 2021 - up to 63.5 (previous survey - 64.4).

The Ministry of Energy expects the average annual exchange rate in 2019 to be 63-64 rubles per $1. The ruble to euro exchange rate at the end of 2019, 2020 and 2021 was estimated by respondents at 74.8; 75.1; 76.4 respectively.

August is not the best month for the Russian currency.

“Traditionally, at the end of summer, trade balance and current account indicators deteriorate,” comments an analyst at Freedom Finance Investment Company. In addition, the price of oil also often falls in August.

In addition, August falls usually coincide with a sharp collapse in oil or negative political pressure on Russia, military events, says the deputy chairman of the board of Loko Bank.

This was the case, for example, in 1998. Then the dollar rose from 6.2 rubles from the beginning of the month to 7.9 rubles per US currency by the end of August. Already in September well went for 20 rubles per dollar.

It was in August 2014 that the Russian ruble began its next collapse. Then the dollar exchange rate, starting at 35 rubles per American currency, by the end of the month soared to 37 rubles per dollar.

In August 2015, the dollar exchange rate jumped from 58 rubles to 66.5 rubles. In August 2016, the dollar was trading at 65-67 rubles.

The only exception in recent years was August 2017, when the ruble even strengthened somewhat, notes the currency strategist at TeleTrade Group. Thus, the US dollar exchange rate last August was trading at 59-60 rubles.

This August will most likely not be an exception and the ruble will decline, experts say.

At least the ruble has already started this month with a fall. According to official trading data from the Central Bank, on August 7, the dollar exchange rate rose to 63.49 rubles.

The activation of the United States regarding the new package of sanctions, a decrease in oil prices from recent highs, an increase in foreign currency purchases from outside as part of the implementation of the fiscal rule, and also a seasonal decrease in the current account, which is why dividends from Russian corporations received by foreign participants are converted into foreign currency, explains possible reasons for the fall of Egorov.

This August, the Ministry of Finance’s interventions will further put pressure on the ruble. Last Friday, August 3, the Ministry of Finance announced the volume of foreign currency purchases for the coming month - so,

Thus, the daily volume of foreign currency purchases will be at the level of 16.7 billion rubles. As a result, the August volume of purchases will become a record, previously the June level of 379.7 billion rubles. In July, the department allocated 347.7 billion rubles for the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic market.

“The current account of the balance of payments will remain seasonally weak, depriving the ruble of support,” comments Sergei Gaivoronsky, expert at “”.

At the same time, the US Senate may introduce a new package of sanctions against domestic public debt, which is being prepared for adoption, this fall.

“It will be of great importance whether restrictions are introduced on all OFZ issues or only on new issues. When,

if investments in OFZs are prohibited in general, then the ruble exchange rate may fall by 10-15% against the US dollar, but if only new issues are subject to sanctions, then the impact on the exchange rate will be insignificant and short-lived, about 5% fall can await the ruble within 3 -4 next months",

Alor Broker analyst comments.

Experts expect that this August, unlike previous ones, oil will not sink the ruble.

This year there is no reason for a fall in oil prices; rather, on the contrary, sanctions against Iran could lead to an increase in prices to $80 per barrel and higher, comments Andrey Lyushin, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Loko Bank.

Starting Monday, August 6, US authorities are reinstating the first part of sanctions against Iran in connection with the American side's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Restrictions will be imposed on the automobile sector, trade in gold and other key metals. At the same time, Iran will face a second wave of sanctions in the fall.

In addition, according to Gaivoronsky, real interest rates on Russian securities remain high, which means that if devaluation accelerates, we may see an increase in demand for domestic debt assets. At the end of the month, according to him, the dollar exchange rate may stabilize at around 64-65 rubles per dollar.

Alexander Egorov, meanwhile, does not rule out a reduction in the ruble this August to the level of 65-66 rubles. to the dollar.

“What the course will be at the end of the year will largely depend on the aggravation of geopolitical differences with the United States and the specific content of the sanctions,” the expert explains. According to him, it cannot be ruled out that the dollar on the local market will reach 68-70 rubles. per unit of US currency.

“Those who have income and expenses in rubles should remember that

The ruble is the currency of a developing country, and such currencies are always characterized by sharp devaluations, with a frequency of 5 to 10 years. Therefore, there is no need to try to predict the next collapse - there will undoubtedly be one.

but no one knows when, but it’s worth preparing for this by creating a bi-currency or multi-currency basket from your savings,” advises Alexey Antonov.

We present to you the latest dollar exchange rate forecast for December 2018.
Financial experts predict that in December the dollar exchange rate will increase slightly and amount to 67-68 rubles. Against the backdrop of international sanctions against Russia, as well as the US Federal Reserve's plans to raise the key rate, pressure on the ruble will continue, but oil prices (Qatar's decision to withdraw from OPEC) and the Ministry of Finance's decision to suspend foreign currency purchases provide support. The result is temporary parity.

What affects the dollar exchange rate now?

Currently, the dollar/ruble exchange rate is relatively stable - but that could change if the US publishes the final version of the Russian sanctions bill. However, the bill will not be approved until after the US Congress. In this case, analysts do not rule out the dollar rising to 75.00 rubles or more. Residents of the United States and other allied countries will get rid of Russian currency, and its exchange rate will drop to 72.00 rubles. New anti-Russian sanctions were introduced on August 22. The next package of sanctions is expected at the end of December.

The oil market will positively support the ruble in December - the embargo on the supply of Iranian oil will have a beneficial effect on the condition of the ruble, but possible sanctions will restrain the growth of the national currency.

The ruble exchange rate is also declining due to the withdrawal of assets from securities of developing countries. If Washington imposes sanctions on the purchase of Russian OFZs by foreign investors, the ruble will collapse to 75.00 rubles/dollar.

The main factor influencing the dollar forecast for December remains the geopolitical situation.

Risks for the ruble

In December, the ruble exchange rate continues to be affected by the threat of new sanctions from the United States. Binbank believes that if a restriction on transactions with the government debt of the Russian Federation is included in the list, the ruble exchange rate will not be able to avoid a serious fall.

Exchange rates will be affected by the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, the meeting of OPEC member countries and the meeting of the Russian and US presidents in Paris. A possible threat to the ruble is also posed by the package of sanctions “in the Skripal case,” which will most likely come into force at the end of December if adopted by the new US government.

Analysts at the American financial giant Citigroup predicted the prospects for the ruble exchange rate if the United States introduces restrictive measures against Russian government debt.

As Bloomberg notes, “additional capital outflows caused by this event could ultimately weaken the ruble.”

However, it is stipulated that Citi experts considered the “worst-case scenario” in which Washington would prohibit foreign investors from buying Russian federal loan bonds. In this case, according to preliminary estimates, the rate of the Russian national currency could collapse to 75 rubles per dollar.

The table shows the expected price dynamics in rubles per 1 USD, compiled by methodologists of the independent forecasting bureau prognozex.ru.

The weighted average rate for 1 USD is indicated. in rubles with settlements after trading on the MICEX Unified Trading System

The Russian currency ended the week weakening. Losses against the dollar on Friday amounted to 1.07 rubles, against the euro – 30.2 kopecks, up to ₽67.7200 And ₽77.2500 respectively. The energy market closed at $72.81, starting the new week with a “rollback” to the area of ​​$72.62 (at 08:28 Moscow time), winning back Baker Hughes data on an increase in drilling rigs operating in the US to 869 units (+10 units/week .)

The main reason for the “troubles” of the Russian currency continues to be the development of sanctions issues (threats of official Washington to minimize trade with the Russian Federation, ban the export of dual-use goods to our country, freeze dollar correspondent accounts of Russian banks, deprive the Russian Federation of access to external loans, ban Aeroflot from flying to the USA , add Russia to the list of states sponsoring terrorism, etc.)

The main beneficiaries of the sanctions hysteria unleashed by the United States were once again stock speculators, who hastened to send the ruble to lows unprecedented since 2016. It is speculative games, according to representatives of Russian Standard Bank, that will largely determine the ruble exchange rate in the coming days.

— The exchange rate will be formed mainly due to the speculative component. The very harsh sanctions rhetoric at the end of last week, however, does not provide sufficient certainty regarding future restrictions. Positive factors for the national currency can be considered an almost twofold reduction in daily purchases by the Ministry of Finance (to ₽8.4 billion from ₽16.7 billion) and the beginning of the tax period (enterprises begin paying taxes on Tuesday, excise tax payments begin on Wednesday). Exporters, with a high degree of probability, will look for an opportunity to exchange foreign currency at the highest possible rate. In general, the week promises to be very good. The expected intervals for the dollar and euro are ₽65.00-68.00 and ₽75.00-78.00,” Maxim Timoshenko, an analyst at the credit institute, shared his thoughts.

The expert’s opinion about increased turbulence in ruble pairs is shared by Alfa-Bank specialists, who predict a fairly wide range of fluctuations from ₽60.00 to ₽70.00 per dollar.

SMP Bank also spoke about rampant speculators.

— The mechanism for the gradual introduction of sanctions opens up wide scope for speculation, which negatively affects the ruble exchange rate, which has already reached two-year minimums. In the short term, we expect stabilization around ₽67.00/USD. provided there are no negative verbal interventions on the topic of sanctions,” the financial institution commented.

Analysts at BKS-Premier Bank, for their part, believe that the intensity of passions provoked by the American authorities is gradually fading away.

“The first emotions have subsided, the main sales in the market have ended,” notes Alexander Bakhtin, a representative of the credit institute. “Nevertheless, uncertainty regarding further developments continues to weigh on sentiment. In addition to speculators, the US dollar index, which has risen to annual highs, and a local decline in oil prices are playing against the ruble. This week we expect consolidation of RUR/USD within the range of ₽65.00–67.00.

Analysts at Globex Bank, in turn, expect the ruble to continue to fall. The RUR/USD fluctuation range for Monday-Friday, announced by experts from the credit institute, is ₽66.30-69.00.

In general, for July 2018, the dollar to ruble exchange rate looks very stable. Of course, during the month the official rate varied from 62.10 to 63.49 rubles, however, the rate on July 1 was 62.76 rubles, and the official value for the last July weekend was 62.97 rubles. In fact, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble has not changed. What will happen to the US dollar in August? Dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018: table by day from experts.

Photo: pixabay.com

What will happen to the dollar in August 2018

In the Russian economy itself, everything is now relatively stable. It goes neither up nor down, there is a certain stagnation. And if no sharp shocks occur in August (as in April after a new package of US sanctions), then the ruble is unlikely to strengthen noticeably or, on the contrary, weaken.

The main thing in the dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018 is the situation with itself.

Most observers believe that the US dollar may weaken slightly in August. There are a number of prerequisites for this.

The first is the position of the US President, who advocates a weak dollar. The United States is in a state of “trade war” with China and the European Union. A strong dollar will put the US at a disadvantage relative to its competitors.

China is lowering its currency, the yuan, to compensate for America's tariffs on goods from China. A weakened national currency gives China a chance to at least partially compensate for the damage from exports to the United States. For the same quantity of goods, Chinese manufacturers will receive more yuan.

However, the American financial authorities increased the key rate, which should have the opposite effect - strengthen the dollar. Trump criticized such actions, but he has no opportunity to influence this.

But there are a number of other factors for the weakening of the dollar. Among them are, say, not the most satisfactory economic information from America, and potential “cunning” moves by Japan.

Photo: pixabay.com

What will happen to the dollar in August 2018: daily forecast

As always, we publish 2 alternative tables with a monthly dollar forecast.

The first is the dollar exchange rate forecast for August 2018 from the APECON agency. It is not always famous for accurate forecasts, but no one can give them. Every daily forecast is a risk of error.

One way or another, in terms of how the current trends may influence the dollar/ruble exchange rate, this table is of interest:

According to experts from the APECON agency, in August there will be nothing out of the ordinary with the dollar-ruble exchange rate. By the end of the month, the rate will be approximately the same as at the beginning.

Another table presents a forecast of the dollar/ruble exchange rate in August 2018 based on statements by Sberbank analysts. He assumes that the dollar will fall slightly against the ruble: