The dollar was 80 rubles. The dollar exchange rate has set a new historical record. The ruble at the start of trading is trying to win back losses against the dollar and the euro

Experts believe less and less in the Russian national currency. Several reputable analysts have already predicted that by the end of the year the exchange rate will fall to 75 rubles per dollar, and even expensive oil will not help him. Why did the national currency, which recently stood quite firmly on conditional legs, start to fall in price so rapidly?

Analysts cite sanctions as the main reason. Despite assurances from the Russian authorities that they do not have much influence on the economy, one of their prospects has led to the fact that the Russian currency has fallen in price by almost 10 rubles to the dollar since the beginning of the year.

And this is far from the limit. If the US Congress approves a tough version of the bill on sanctions against Russia, which prohibits US residents from making transactions with Russian government debt and state-owned banks, the ruble will fall in price by 12% compared to current values ​​and end the year at a rate of 76.7 rubles. per dollar. This is a negative scenario for the macroeconomic outlook, outlined by the Chief Economist of BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov. He also argues that painful restrictive measures will cause an outflow of capital from the Russian market, which, in addition to increasing pressure on the ruble, will accelerate inflation. In the baseline forecast, which does not take into account the effect of potential sanctions, the ruble exchange rate by the end of the year will be 63.4 rubles. per dollar

Back in mid-August, a senior economist at Danske Bank warned that by the end of the year the dollar could cost 73 rubles. Vladimir Miklashevsky. In his opinion, without the threat of sanctions, the ruble could cost less than 60 per dollar. Moreover, since the beginning of 2018, the ruble price of oil has increased by 33%, from 3830 rubles. per barrel in early January to a record 5112 rubles. 24 August. But the above measures by the United States will lead to the fact that in a year the ratio of the ruble to the dollar may be fixed at the level of 75.1 to 1.

Even representatives of the financial authorities are beginning to lose optimism. So, the head of Sberbank of Russia German Gref said that in the short term, Western sanctions are not very sensitive to Russia. However, further restrictive measures will affect the Russian economy.

“The scale of the sanctions is now such that in the short term we don’t really feel them, but in the medium and long term they will affect both our economy and the global economy,” the head of Sberbank said.

Recall that the next package of anti-Russian sanctions for the so-called case Skripals entered into force on 27 August. It implies the termination of the issuance of licenses to Russian state-owned companies for the export of weapons and dual-use products. The second part of the package may be activated in the fall and include a reduction in the level of diplomatic relations, a ban on Aeroflot flights to the United States, and a number of other measures. But the market is not afraid of this, but the bill of the US senators, which was submitted to Congress on August 14. Document S.3336, entitled “On Strengthening NATO, Combating International Cybercrime and Imposing Additional Sanctions on the Russian Federation,” proposes introducing new restrictions on the Russian financial sector, up to freezing the property and operations of Russian state-owned banks in the United States.

Sanctions, however, are not the only reason for the weakness of the ruble. According to some economists, we are on the verge of a potential crisis in emerging markets, including Russia. Argentina is now suffering a financial disaster and is asking for urgent assistance from the IMF, while Turkey is practically in a pre-default state. Not in the best position of South Africa, where the mass flight of capital began. Even the currency of India is getting cheaper, despite the growth of the economy. As Vesti writes, under such conditions, "the mere desire of speculators to frolic in the foreign exchange market of a particular country can destroy the economy, and Russia is no exception here." So far, the situation is being saved by high oil prices, but if a correction begins, the crisis is almost inevitable.

“For Russia, a strong depreciation of the ruble will hardly be less painful than before, although in some positions, of course, it has become less vulnerable than in 2014. Then the devaluation looked like a catastrophe. Nevertheless, the country's economy still does not show any clear growth rates, and it is difficult to say when the stimulus measures will work and have the appropriate effect.

Associate Professor of the Department of Stock Markets and Financial Engineering of the RANEPA Sergey Khestanov believes that the most negative scenario is not too realistic, but if it does happen, the ruble may fall below 80 per dollar.

- The choice of scenario depends on how severe the sanctions will be. Today, the ruble exchange rate is determined not so much by the economy as by the rhetoric around sanctions. Let me emphasize that it is rhetoric. Until measures are introduced, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency cause statements by politicians. The fact that the ruble is most affected not by the economy, but by psychology, leads to the fact that the spread of forecasts is very large. In an optimistic scenario, the situation looks one, and in a pessimistic one, it looks completely different.

In reality, the worst scenarios, as well as the best scenarios, rarely happen, usually it's some kind of middle option. But if you dream up and assess the prospects of the ruble as pessimistically as possible, you can also see the exchange rate in the region of 82. Now this seems like a fantasy, but if it really comes to a tough version of sanctions, this is quite real. Another issue is that the probability of this scenario being triggered is low.

It seems to me that we should at least wait for the US Congress to return from recess and see how it will work with the bill that was introduced into it before going on recess. This document contains a very tough clause on prohibiting Russian enterprises from using American debt in their calculations. If this clause is adopted in an unmitigated form, it will cause a rapid restructuring of a significant part of the Russian economy, which can easily bring the exchange rate to 80 rubles per dollar.

But, I repeat, in my opinion, the likelihood that this will happen is rather small. American sanctions sound menacing, but so far they are being introduced so as not to cause catastrophes. Even sanctions against big businessmen, Vekselberg and Deripaska, which were adopted back in April, have not yet come into effect. They have been softened several times and still do not work.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is the preservation of the ruble near current levels, with the proviso that the development of the situation depends on policy.

"SP": - What does the fact that rhetoric, and not economics, influence so strongly on the ruble say about the stability?

— The fact is that quite stable currencies sometimes depend on psychology. This suggests that political tensions are so high that market participants make trading decisions by looking primarily at politics and not the trade balance or cash flow. Unfortunately, the world is arranged in such a way that politics is unpredictable.

If we imagine that relations between Russia and the West suddenly soften, which is also unlikely, we can see a rate not very far from 50 rubles to the dollar. Because for the current oil prices, the values ​​of the ruble are completely different. But this is almost unbelievable, and as a result, the ruble exchange rate also includes the prospect of further development of sanctions. And this is not an economic issue.

"SP": - And if we talk about the economy, how big is the threat of a crisis in emerging markets for the ruble?

- This is a complex question, which cannot be answered in a nutshell. In short, the global economy is cyclical, and we are approaching another cycle. Many of you probably remember three such cycles. 1986-87 is a fairly severe crisis in developed countries. This is the crisis of 1997-1998, which ended in default for us. And I think everyone knows what happened in 2008. It is easy to guess that the time interval between these phenomena is 10-11 years. Adding this figure to 2008, we can conclude that another crisis is on the way. Emerging markets traditionally react more strongly to such events. Within a year or three, we really can see another global economic crisis that will affect us as well. If this happens, we will have to revise our forecasts for the ruble exchange rate downwards.

Head of the analytical department of Grand Capital Sergey Kozlovsky assesses the situation with restrained optimism and believes that expensive oil will support the Russian currency.

- A dollar at 75 rubles is possible only with a significant collapse in oil prices to at least $ 50 per barrel with a simultaneous even greater deterioration in geopolitical tensions in conflicts in which Russia is involved in one way or another.

It should be noted that we do not consider such a scenario. As a maximum value, we will note 70 rubles per US dollar if the expected correction in the oil market drags on for at least a month. Of the most expected scenarios on our part, movement in the corridor of 67-69 rubles against the backdrop of the preservation of conflicting drivers for the ruble - on the one hand, strong oil, on the other - sanctions and rising inflation.

The Russian national currency again fell victim to the August curse

The crisis of 20 years ago is still echoing today. Every year, Russians wait with bated breath for August, which they perceive as a "black" month. 2018 was no exception, throwing firewood on the fire of these mystical August fears. It was in the last month of the summer of 2018 that the ruble began to fall rapidly against the backdrop of ever-increasing sanctions pressure. Of course, the “wooden” one is not losing in price at the same pace as in 1998, but its weakening makes people seriously nervous. What will the ruble exchange rate be by the end of the year? What to invest in? Should we expect another default? Doctor of Economic Sciences Igor NIKOLAEV answered these and other questions from MK readers on a direct line in the editorial office.

Igor Alekseevich, the ruble exchange rate traditionally falls in August, but recovers by the New Year. Will it be the same this year? What will be the dollar and euro exchange rate at the end of 2018?

After the default of 1998, August is now always represented as a "black" month. However, I do not agree with this statement. For example, at the end of 2014, or rather in mid-December, the euro exchange rate broke through 100 rubles. It was a record fall in the exchange rate, by no means the August one. Therefore, one should not console oneself with the hope that with the advent of autumn, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate will change direction. There are fundamental reasons for its further weakening, which are not related to the months of the year. First of all, we are talking about the state of the Russian economy, which leaves much to be desired. However, there will be no critical collapse, which was observed in 1998. But the ruble will be under increasing sanctions pressure. In particular, the adoption of the corresponding bill of the US Congress is possible in autumn, which has a very strong downward effect on the ruble exchange rate. By the end of 2018, we may see the dollar for 80 rubles and the euro for 90 rubles.

- Will there ever be conditions in Russia under which the ruble will not weaken, but strengthen?

Of course, someday such conditions will arise. But this requires our economy to be strong. Now we cannot boast of such a thing. The domestic economy is still dependent on the level of oil prices. It does not solve many structural problems. Plus, it is hit by the growing sanctions pressure, which seems to be for a long time. All this affects the exchange rate. Let's hope that someday the ruble will strengthen for real.

What is the best currency to save money in? As practice shows, the method often proposed by specialists - to split funds into three parts: dollars, euros and rubles - does not work. How to be?

I never liked this recipe either. No matter how much I would like to advise people to keep their funds in rubles, but, alas, I can’t yet. These are only dreams. Therefore, I have to recommend that you keep your savings in dollars if possible. I hope that the circulation of "green" in Russia will not be banned. However, such a risk, although minimal, but still exists. And this must be borne in mind.

Recently, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that Russia could abandon the dollar for oil exports and switch to the ruble. Is such an option possible? And under what circumstances?

In order to move to such a scheme, there is little desire on the part of one Russian side. We need the interest of the country that buys oil from us. She must have rubles. Mr. Siluanov's proposal sounds beautiful in words. In fact, this is still a difficult initiative to implement. Who is interested in having rubles to pay for Russian oil, while the “wood” is falling? The country that pays us for oil needs a strong currency, and this, whatever one may say, is now the dollar. Moreover, it is more profitable for us to pay for oil in dollars, since the American currency is growing.

The government claims that we are not afraid of sanctions. But as soon as the States announce the next restrictive measures, the ruble falls. Is it possible to estimate what damage Washington's steps are doing to our currency?

What is a depreciating ruble? First of all, it is the growing uncertainty of the economic situation. The investor does not understand what to prepare for, what to focus on. For example, according to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the average annual exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar in 2018 should be 60.8 rubles. When the rate jumped to 68 rubles - and this is the official forecast rate as early as 2024! - Investors were confused. They do not understand what is happening and what the course will be. In such a situation, normal investors make a pragmatic decision: take a break and not invest in the Russian economy. They freeze their activity, which as a result negatively affects our economy. Moreover, those reforms that our government is going to carry out, under the conditions of sanctions, will not give the effect that officials are counting on. The necessary rates of economic growth will not be. This is the main damage from sanctions.

At the same time, the most serious sanctions relate to sovereign Russian debt, that is, a ban on Americans buying Russian bonds. It destroys the mechanism of maintaining and strengthening the "wooden", which worked before. After all, what happened last year and the beginning of this year? The economy did not become strong, but at the same time the exchange rate strengthened to 55-56 rubles per dollar. Why? The point is that a speculative mechanism was at work. The share of non-residents among buyers of Russian bonds as of April 1, 2018 amounted to a record 34%. But in April, new sanctions were introduced, and non-residents began to leave, and the rate immediately swung - 60-63 rubles for the "green". The exchange rate of the ruble was kept at the expense of carry-trade operations, when non-residents buy Russian bonds for dollars, and then sell them at a good profitability and convert the proceeds rubles back into dollars. But from April 1 to July 1, the share of non-residents in Russian bonds fell from 34% to 28%. And with new sanctions against the sovereign debt of the Russian Federation, this mechanism will be completely destroyed. So far, these are only intentions, but with a high degree of probability they will be adopted by the US Congress. And then do not expect anything good.

The law on the increase in the VAT rate has already led to an increase in prices. Now the ruble has also weakened. What goods and services will rise in price first of all?

Everything will rise in price. The fact is that VAT is included in the cost of any product and any service. Of course, there is food and medicine, where the preferential rate is 10%. Theoretically, their prices should not rise. However, I assure you that against the general inflationary background, the price tags will rise for them as well. Paradoxically, the price of what is in high demand rises. Therefore, by the end of the year, when the seasonal harvest is long over, food prices will rise most noticeably.

It is reported that in the near future the price of air tickets abroad will increase. How much? How will the cost of flights within the country change?

The cost of air tickets abroad is denominated in foreign currency. Air carriers made no secret of the fact that the rise in prices due to the appreciation of the dollar should be 5-8%. The course jumped, and they review the price once a week. International flights will certainly rise in price. Meanwhile, domestic flights, in theory, should not. However, when imports become more expensive, the prices for domestic goods and services follow them. Therefore, most likely, over time, prices will increase for domestic flights.

Our family plans to acquire their own housing. We are thinking about getting a mortgage. Is it worth it now to take on such obligations or is it better to wait?

If you are sure that if the economic situation worsens, your family income will not change and you will be able to pay off the mortgage, then feel free to take a home loan. With the current rate, it's profitable. It all depends on the prospects for your income in the foreseeable future.

Alexey Antonov, analyst at Alor Broker: Quite a lot of points of view have already been expressed regarding the situation with the Russian currency. From the saddest - where at the end of the year the ruble against the dollar will weaken to 75 rubles. and above, up to moderately smoothed with a cost of no more than 68 rubles. per dollar. In our opinion, it is worth adhering to the soft forecast with a gradual further weakening of the national currency in the range of 70-72 rubles. until the end of the year. This is explained by the fact that the ruble will inevitably be affected by a package of new US sanctions in November and an imminent new outflow of capital from the Russian government debt, but also by a fairly stably high price of oil on world markets. The situation with sanctions against Iran and the growing seasonal demand for energy resources will play into the hands here. Thus, the negative effect of the sanctions will somehow recoup at the expense of the resource sector.

It is important to understand that such an unpleasant weakening of the ruble - and over the past 12 months, the "wooden" has decreased by almost 10 rubles. - caused rather not only by uncontrollable factors in the form of sanctions, but also has tacit support from internal Russian processes - it has been said more than once that the ruble is greatly underestimated and is rather a hostage of the situation due to the so-called deterrent effects on the part of the authorities. If not for external geopolitical factors of influence, it could well cost 60 rubles. or even lower, the high cost of oil allows it.

On the whole, it would be strange to deny that a weak ruble is not beneficial to the authorities now. More than once thoughts have already slipped that a strong ruble in the face of such influence from the outside may be against filling reserve funds at the expense of super profits. Therefore, there is no need to talk about the intentional strengthening of the national currency.

As for the interest rate of the Central Bank, most likely, in the current conditions of the expected weakening of the economy and the negative effect of sanctions, it would be right to insure the situation and increase it by 0.25% to 7.5%, which will smooth out the effect of external factors, but will negatively affect both on the situation in the financial sector and on consumer sentiment.

Alexander Shustov, General Director of MFI "Money Fanny": The ruble does not exist by itself, in the globalized world economy it is one of the currencies of developing countries. At the moment, investors' capital is trying to leave developing countries for developed ones, or rather, for the US economy, which is ready to offer them a dollar yield of up to 2.9% per year on 10-year US Treasuries, as well as advantages in direct investment in American companies. For example, in the form of reduced taxes for these companies and their products. The Brazilian real, Argentine peso, Turkish lira are falling against the US dollar because emerging economies offer investors too high risks and relatively low returns. And this will continue as long as the US Fed's reserve rate is relatively high and shows an upward trend, while the key rates of developing countries, including Russia, are relatively low and show a downward trend. And this is all other things being equal, which, of course, are in the case of the ruble, and these conditions are sanctions that are becoming more and more stringent and prevent attracting investments with the help of public debt. In such conditions, the road to the rate of 71 rubles is almost guaranteed to be open for the dollar. until the end of the year. Sanctions against OFZs in their light version, when the ban is imposed only on transactions with new government debt, are already included in the course, but their heavy version, if adopted, could drop the dollar even by 75. The heavy version implies a ban on transactions with all issues of OFZ - both new and old. The weakening of the ruble is beneficial for exporters, export state-owned companies, it helps them earn relatively more rubles on exports and spend them domestically. A weak ruble is beneficial to the budget, which can fulfill its obligations in the same amount of money, but less in value. Raising the key rate in the context of GDP growth by 1-1.5% per year is hardly possible, as it will stop this weak growth as well.

Sergei Zvenigorodsky, Head of Retail Sales, SOLID Management: The ruble has already been weakened by the government to the levels of 2014, when, with an oil price of 75-80 dollars per barrel and a low level of exports, they gave 80 rubles. per dollar. Now the situation has changed dramatically - oil costs the same, and exports are breaking all records and have grown by 50% by August. Part of this rise has undoubtedly been the rise in hydrocarbon prices. But their total sales volume in export earnings is gradually declining from the 30% mark. The main beneficiary of the weakening of the ruble at the end of the year will be the state and big business, mainly with state participation. Filling the budget by increasing export earnings will make it possible to fulfill all obligations to citizens and develop the economy. In addition, this approach allows you not to spend money on maintaining the ruble exchange rate and reduce any possible sanctions to a minimum.

Unfortunately, the strengthening of the ruble will follow external signs, not internal ones. Brexit in the EU, Senate elections in Washington, transfer of contracts for the purchase of hydrocarbons from West to East (China is reducing supplies from the US and is ready for a reduction from the Saudis and Qatar if other channels from Russia, Venezuela and other countries of the Middle East are set up), as well as further growth of inflation in the US and sanctions on transactions with the dollar, will lead to crisis phenomena. These points of change will lead to the fact that foreign participants will use to save not only the US market, but also emerging ones. It can be noted that the replacement of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the countries that placed it in the United States with speculative capital due to the increase in the Fed rate led to strong dollar volatility and general instability of the global market. This leads to a strong reaction to any changes in the economy and politics. If we compare the situation in Turkey, Argentina, Venezuela and Iran, then Russia has the most "vigorous" and balanced economy. The sanctions have led to the fact that the country was able to reorganize itself into its own production and create an ever stronger base for development.

Of course, this development of events led to a decrease in the real incomes of the population, and the high cost of borrowing abroad and the lack of money within Russia in free access leads to problems in the social and economic spheres. There is not enough free liquidity and the Central Bank will continue to tighten monetary policy, as it always does in such a case, so the rate increase to 7.5% is quite expected during the next meeting. This increase will push banks to develop and understand revenue generation processes as they are used to, that is, with higher margins. But the credit rate will rise again for some time before the end of the year.

Sergey Drozdov, analyst at FINAM Group: At this stage, one of the main problems for global financial markets is still the escalation of tensions in trade relations between Washington and Beijing - the White House systematically continues to put pressure on China, thereby trying to reduce the trade deficit with China. The confrontation between the two largest economies may have a detrimental effect on global GDP growth, and further protectionism, the strengthening of the dollar and a faster tightening of monetary policy by the overseas regulator may lead to a decline in the US stock market in the fourth quarter and increase pressure on emerging markets that have already suffered serious loss this year.

At the moment, in addition to the negative conjuncture in emerging markets, the national currency is under pressure from the situation regarding the prospect of further restrictions by the United States. Measures against the Russian economy include tough sanctions against Russian state-owned banks and new issues of government debt. If such unprecedented measures against the domestic financial sector are taken, then the level of 69, which at this stage is a kind of red ribbon for speculators, will not stand and the ruble can quickly test the mark of 71 per dollar and above. We will also see another wave of sales in long OFZs and on the stock market, where the main beneficiaries of the fall will be the papers of Sberbank and VTB.

Most likely, until the details of the next sanctions package, which will be discussed in detail by the US Congress in September, are clarified, the ruble is waiting for a range of 65-69 against the dollar. In turn, before the midterm elections to the US Congress, which will be held in November, one cannot exclude new aggressive statements from overseas partners, which will also have a negative impact on the national currency.

Thus, the chances for the ruble to return to the range of 61-64, under favorable conditions and the situation on the commodity market, is possible only by December of this year.

Despite the fact that the weak ruble plays into the hands of exporters and provides additional revenues to the budget, the devaluation of the national currency has already led to a significant rise in the price of gasoline, which may cause an increase in prices for food and manufactured goods. Even now, producers of sausages and semi-finished products, which are suffering losses due to a sharp increase in the cost of raw materials, want to increase retail prices. All this, coupled with an increase in VAT and an increase in tariffs for housing and communal services, which have in some cases increased by 25% since last year, create prerequisites for a double-digit increase in consumer inflation and a decrease in the standard of living of the population.

As for the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, at the upcoming meeting on September 14, the regulator is likely to leave the key interest rate unchanged, until the situation is clarified regarding further US sanctions plans for the domestic economy.

The ruble at the start of trading is trying to win back losses against the dollar and the euro

© Illustration by IA Rosbalt

The US dollar exchange rate for "tomorrow" settlements at the beginning of today's trading on the Moscow Exchange by 10:00 lost almost 6 kopecks by the previous close and amounted to 66.8450 rubles. At the same time, the euro exchange rate by this time had fallen by 14 kopecks to 75.8325 rubles, according to the exchange data.

As Alpari analyst Vladislav Antonov notes, yesterday “the pressure on the national currency exchange rate came from the general strengthening of the US dollar, the continued fall in oil prices, as well as renewed talk about anti-Russian sanctions by the United States.”

“In the evening it became known that the United States is imposing new sanctions against Russia because of the situation in Ukraine. This was stated by the Special Representative of the US State Department for Ukraine Kurt Volker, ”the expert recalls in his review.

According to him, today at the auctions in Asia "oil remains traded in the red." “In 27 trading days, sellers completely blocked the upward movement from $70.28 (August 15). During this time there were no serious rollbacks upwards. The technical conditions for a correction to $76.65 have been met,” Antonov believes.

He states that “the dollar / ruble pair has broken through two resistance levels: 66.37 rubles. and 66.75 rubles. “Buyers headed for 67.15 rubles. The last frontier that is holding them back from a full-fledged bullish rally. An upward correction in oil may hold back buyers and even force them to retreat 66.25 rubles. per US dollar. After 67.15 rubles. buyers open the road to 67.75 rubles. and 68.40 rubles. per dollar. These are the nearest target levels after the completion of the upward correction in oil,” the analyst predicts.

He also points out that "the euro / ruble pair is at the resistance of 76.10 rubles." “Having passed it, buyers open the way to 77.29 rubles. per unit of European currency. As soon as the problem with Italy is resolved (coordination of the country's budget - ed.), then it will be possible to aim at 79.30 rubles, ”adds the analyst.

Last week, the Russian market was rocked by the news that the US Senate approved a bill that would expand economic sanctions against Russia. This led to the collapse of Russian stock indices. In particular, the MICEX index fell to a minimum in 15 months. The ruble is still showing relative stability. Let's talk about how long the stability of the ruble to the negative will last and about the most negative scenarios.

How economic sanctions against Russia work now

Over the past year and a half, non-residents have purchased OFZs for 734 billion rubles, providing 84% of the amount that the Ministry of Finance raised on the market to cover the budget deficit.

To begin with, we recall that the current economic sanctions imposed by the United States against Russia apply to Russian state-owned companies and banks, in particular, the terms of financing are limited. The new bill tightens restrictions on foreign exchange financing for Russian state-owned banks and commodity companies, which are already under sanctions: the maximum loan term for the first has been reduced from 30 to 14 days, for the second - from three months to one.

However, the devil, as usual, is in the details. Previous sanctions did not provide for any restrictions on the purchase of Russian debt securities. Foreign funds and banks actively used it. Over the past year and a half, non-residents for 734 billion rubles, providing 84% of the amount that the Ministry of Finance raised on the market to cover the budget deficit.

In the new version of the sanctions, there is no direct ban on the purchase of Russian debt, however, 180 days after the document enters into force, the US Treasury must submit a report to Congress on “expanding sanctions on the sovereign debt of the Russian Federation and derivatives,” the text of the document says, which is published in the unified database of the Congress. It can be concluded that the adoption of such a decision is not far off, and holders of Russian OFZs and Eurobonds received three months to exit them.

If foreigners leave the market, the ruble exchange rate will approach 80

In total, foreigners have in their hands the debts of the Russian government for 1.8 trillion. rubles, or 30.1% of the market. At the same time, in medium- and long-term issues that are traded on the stock exchange, non-residents own up to 70% of all securities.

These colossal investments brought currency to the market when the flow of petrodollars dried up, and became the force that allowed the ruble to strengthen in isolation from oil - in November 2016, at the same price of "black gold" as now, the dollar cost 10 rubles more .

Now, the exodus of foreigners from bonds will cause the ruble to fall - with oil at $50 per barrel, the fair rate will rise to 70-73 rubles per dollar, and at current prices it will be closer to 80.

Are we in for another crisis in August?

If all speculative capital suddenly turns around, then we will observe the same events that took place in November-December 2014.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that the sale of rubles may begin during a period of bad seasonality in the current account: in summer, the inflow of foreign currency from exports will go almost entirely to imports of goods and services (tourism).

If all speculative capital suddenly turns around, then we will observe the same events that took place in November-December 2014. This is not the first time this sad scenario has been repeated: the Russian foreign exchange market is pumped with hot speculative capital, inflating a bubble that bursts, and speculators run back buying dollars - this is how the explosive devaluation took place in 1998, 2008 and 2014.

The Russian budget will also be under attack. As the reserve funds were exhausted, it was planned to cover the deficit by attracting a trillion rubles a year of debt - a record amount in the history of the country. So far, according to the Central Bank, foreigners have been the main creditor of the Russian government: they provided 90% of loans last year and 78% in January-April this year.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation sees no difficulties

The Central Bank in this situation exudes confidence. Russian banks would "gladly buy back" bonds from foreigners if they imposed sanctions, Elvira Nabiullina, head of the regulator, said Friday.

Of course, you can print a lot of rubles to buy OFZs. But where to get $30 billion to pay off carry traders, given that the current account profit (net inflow of currency into the country) will be $25 billion this year and less than $10 billion next.

How the situation looks in numbers

In the week to June 13, large speculators on the Chicago Stock Exchange reduced their bets on the growth of the ruble by another 5%, made through the derivatives market. The volume of long positions of funds in contracts for the Russian currency decreased by 1024 to 20.469, or a minimum level for 3 months.

Hedge fund bets on the ruble, which reached a historical record in the spring, have fallen for the seventh week in a row. The market has not seen such a steady sell-off since 2011, according to data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Since the beginning of May, hedge funds have reduced investments in rubles by 38%, or 12.492 contracts, which is equivalent to buying for currencies in the amount of 32.35 billion rubles.

In transactions on the Moscow Exchange, non-residents also exit from rubles. Moreover, operations intensified just after the US Senate approved a bill to expand anti-Russian sanctions.