Dynamics of the US dollar exchange rate. What will happen to the dollar (ruble) in the near future - forecasts and expert opinions Dollar exchange rate year by month

The American dollar has always been the dominant currency. It is actively used, bought up by all countries of the world. Despite the fact that Russia is trying to be less dependent on the dollar, its fluctuations are strongly reflected in the state of the economy. July and August 2018 were once again hot for the foreign exchange market.

It increased daily, reaching its critical level. The Central Bank always builds forecasts based on a graph of the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate by months. In 2018, currency fluctuations are noticeable compared to 2017.

Analyst forecasts

Forecasts for the growth of the currency are given at the end of each year. An approximate graph of the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate in 2018 by months was compiled at the end of 2017. According to preliminary estimates of analysts for the dollar in the first half of 2018, the exchange will offer 60-62 rubles. The maximum level will be reached in the second half. During this period, the rate will rise to 68 rubles.

The main key factors that underlie the construction of a growth dynamics forecast are the following:

1. Potential downside risks for oil prices. This may be due to increased activity of shale producers in America.

2. New packages of sanctions against Russia by the United States.

In addition, the exchange rate of the American currency may be affected by changes in monetary policy between countries. As the dynamics of change over 8 months shows, the forecasts come true. In comparison with 2017, every month there is an increase in the dollar against the ruble.

What awaits the national currency

The Central Bank annually takes measures to strengthen the ruble. But the growth of the American currency cannot be stopped. A large number of factors influence this. Financial experts say that the American currency will continue to show its growth.

Now there is active talk about new packages of sanctions against Russia. They promise to be even tougher than before. Perhaps this will change analysts' forecasts for the end of the year for the worse for our country. In 2017, the ruble slightly strengthened its positions, but this did not play a big role in financial stability.

Many citizens, observing the growth of the currency, begin to actively buy it. But analysts are asking not to rush, but to first get advice from a financial expert. First of all, it is high demand that affects the course. If the country begins a massive purchase of currency, then its value will increase. But this phenomenon will be temporary, then the rate will fall. In those who have purchased a large number of dollars, will be in the red.

The first half of 2018 was calm for the financial market. This was influenced by a large number of factors:

1. Russian presidential elections.

2. Football World Cup.

3. Rising oil prices.

All this led to a gradual decrease in the key rates of the Central Bank. But the situation changed in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, experts do not advise running to exchange offices. Many people call the position of the ruble not bad.

Analysts are now forecasting the currency to rise against the ruble this fall. The size can reach 70-75 rubles per US unit. The main reason is the new sanctions. But experts say there is no need to panic.

A positive moment in the economy for this period may be tax deductions, which are insignificant, but affect the exchange rate. The strengthening of the ruble can serve as business income that comes from exports. But this is only a small investment that will not correct the situation in the event of a sharp jump.

Despite the disappointing forecasts, financial market experts talk about their temporary nature. Russia has already experienced strong currency rises several times, August is always a difficult month for our country. The Central Bank always has measures in reserve to help the ruble stay afloat.

Many will be interested to know the dollar exchange rate forecast for 2018 and 2019 in Russia, the end of the year is approaching and it is already possible to predict the end and the beginning of the next one with a fairly high probability. Let's see what is known and what can be deduced from this.

Surely the dollar exchange rate against the ruble has recently become an important issue for many. If the interest of stock players and traders is justified by their professional activities, then ordinary people, first of all, worry about themselves. However, this issue is also important to them.

When the national currency exchange rate sags, inflation rises, which cannot but affect the cost of products and goods on the market. Strengthening or weakening of the currency becomes decisive for bank rates on deposits or loan collateral. And many people are now somehow involved in mortgages or other types of loans.

Yes, the world's main currency is now recognized as the dollar. And the rates are mainly tied to it, so the ratio of the ruble to the dollar is very important for all of us.

Factors affecting the dollar

There are many factors that in one way or another affect the rigidity of the dollar. They can be divided into two main categories:

• political;
• economic.

Of course, the main influence is geopolitics and what is happening in the political arena of America itself. So, the dollar is directly affected by any tension that arises in the world. For example, such as the conflict in China. That is, any political statement can lead to exchange rate fluctuations.

Inside America, the age-old political game between the Democratic Party and the Republicans plays a big role. Basically, they clash with each other when it is necessary to make any legislative decisions or carry out reforms. So, President Trump at the end of last year put forward a tax reform, due to which the exchange rate began to fluctuate greatly.

As for economic factors, they are actually not so few:

• oil rate;
• presence of natural disasters;
• the available yield on government-issued bonds;
• interest rate decided by the Fed;
• other economic indices and other indicators.

Oil in general can provoke fluctuations in a variety of exchange rates. An increase in the price of a barrel of oil has a negative effect on the dollar, it is inferior to other currencies, but as soon as oil goes down again, the dollar strengthens its position. Naturally, this is explained very simply from the point of view of the structure of the financial system. When the price of oil changes, the need for foreign currency to make purchases rises or falls, when the demand for currency changes, quotes change after it.

The Fed is an analogue of our Central Bank. The interest rate allows you to change the credit policy in the domestic market. When it grows, people tend to save the foreign exchange reserve, but if it falls, then people spend money more actively.

Government bonds make the currency more attractive to those who wish to invest.

Other economic indices may have a short-term impact, the publication of these data takes place every seven days.

As for the issue of natural disasters, they can unexpectedly sharply and very seriously bring down any currency in the world, for example, a hurricane named Harkey successfully brought down the dollar in August 2017.

Forecasts and the real situation

Over the past year, the dollar on average cost about 59 rubles (58.33). It was predicted that in 2018 the same figure would be 64.7. Almost eleven percent growth was expected in the RF Ministry of Finance. As you can now judge, analysts were almost not mistaken. In investment organizations, they promised 90 rubles per unit of American currency. Those who were more modest were of the opinion that the dollar would not cross the threshold of 75 rubles. To date, the weighted average amounted to 65.5 rubles.

However, the year is not over yet, time will tell who is still right in this regard. It is already clear that the budget, based on the cost of 64.7, was calculated not quite correctly. At the same time, forecasts that the dollar will exceed 67 rubles by weighted average value have also not come true.

Some forecasts were based on the fact that the demand for oil will not get worse, and America will finally find a common language in Russia. Such a situation would allow the ruble to be in the range of 57-59 per dollar. Alas, this did not happen.

However, the predictions of AMarkets did not come true either: it was believed that the price of oil would fall so low that the ruble would jump to the bar of 80 per dollar. Today, the exchange rate is held at about 65 rubles.

Another unpleasant forecast for the outgoing year was provided by Alpari. She relied on the fact that there would be an outflow of capital belonging to foreign companies, since no one would lift sanctions against Russia. It is likely that we will see the price of seventy rubles per dollar in December.

The fall in the rate, according to these analysts, can be fast, up to fifteen percent a month at once.

It remains only to conclude that it is not easy, and sometimes impossible, to predict the exact situation, especially when it comes to the dollar and the ruble. However, the general forecast so far coincides with reality.

Coming 2019

Experts prefer to make three options for predicting the development of events when they take up charting for a long period. So this time there are positive, neutral and worst options.

If next year the sanctions against our country are nevertheless lifted, and in addition, oil prices stabilize, then it will be possible to observe a depreciation of the dollar against the ruble. The most optimistic forecast is forty rubles per unit, Sberbank stopped at 59, and analysts from Prognozex suggested a drop to fifty-six rubles.

Closer to reality is usually a neutral option. In this case, the ruble will not rise much against the dollar. Analysts suggest that he will be able to stay within 62-70 rubles.

However, a negative option is also likely, no matter how unpleasant it is to note. If this scenario is realized, the prices for black gold will fall, and in addition, additional sanctions will be introduced.

Such an attack on the Russian economy will turn out to be deplorable, and then in 2019 the citizens of the Russian Federation will see unpleasant prices - from 125 to 500 rubles per dollar.

In order to prevent such a sharp collapse, the government needs to develop and start implementing measures to stabilize the situation now. First of all, they should be associated with GDP growth and reduction of the state budget deficit.

Of course, one can also hope for the lifting of sanctions, which would seriously change positions, since investments would come to the country, but such hopes are unlikely to come true in the current political environment.

It turns out that 2019 can bring a very unpleasant surprise to the Russian foreign exchange market, which is still not so easy to prevent. It is easy to imagine what consequences await citizens.

Fresh forecast of the US dollar against the ruble for 2018 - a table with currency forecasts by months. Expert opinion on the prospects for the USD/RUB pair in Russia.

Fresh dollar exchange rate forecast. Will there be growth?

Here's how he assesses the dollar's outlook for autumn and winter 2018 Kira Yukhtenko, editor-in-chief of InvestFuture and stock observer:

Until we see the final version of US sanctions against Russia, it will not be easy for the dollar to firmly gain a foothold below 65 rubles. Too high uncertainty for investors. We do not know whether the sanctions will affect Russian state-owned banks or whether there will be a ban on holding Russian government bonds.

In my opinion, the following scenario is likely: in November, the ruble will face increased volatility. After the elections to the US Congress on November 6 and Trump's meeting with Putin on November 11, the American side will return to the discussion of sanctions. During this period, the dollar can rise above 70 and even above 75 rubles.

In fact, the sanctions may not be as tough as the market fears. And if the price of Brent oil stays at least above $70 per barrel until the end of the year, the ruble will get a chance to strengthen in December.

However, do not lose vigilance: economists are warning of a new global crisis as early as 2019-2020. If the gloomy forecasts come true, the currencies of all developing countries will suffer, including the ruble.

What will happen to the dollar/ruble exchange rate in 2018?

USD/RUB chart (Weekly)

No one can accurately predict the dollar rate - too many factors simultaneously participate in its formation. But, taking into account the high foreign policy risks and structural problems in the Russian economy, experts agree that the ruble may continue to decline in the fall and winter of 2018.

At the end of 2018, the dollar against the ruble may rise to 73-75 rubles. If you want to buy currency for long-term savings, heed the advice of economists: any depreciation can be used for purchases

Risk factors for the ruble

• The Federal Reserve System (Fed) continues to raise interest rates, which puts long-term pressure on the currencies of all developing countries
• Waiting for the final package of anti-Russian sanctions from the US in November 2018. Additional sanctions from the EU and the UK are also possible.
• Possible decline in oil prices - US insists that Russia and Saudi Arabia "bring down" the price through increased production
• Trade wars around the world - a slowdown in the growth rate of all the world's largest economies is possible

Factors supporting the ruble

• The Central Bank of the Russian Federation raised the key rate in September 2018, and also suspended purchases of foreign currency for the Ministry of Finance within the budget until the end of the year. This decision allowed the exchange rate to stabilize in September.
• Until the fall, the price of oil continued to rise thanks to the OPEC agreement, as there was a shortage in the market.

Economists believe that the positive factors listed above will limit the potential for ruble weakening in the coming months. Without them, the Russian currency would be threatened with a more rapid fall.

Dollar forecast for 2018 by months. table

Based on the forecasts of 11 stock analysts, we have compiled average monthly forecasts for the USD/RUB pair. The data in the table are given at the end of the month.

Forecasts for the end of 2018 by months

Dollar Forecast for October 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar/ruble exchange rate for October 2018 is RUB 67.98. October may turn out to be a difficult month for the ruble: we are waiting for the details of US sanctions against Russia and the fight against panic within the country.

Dollar forecast for November 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for November 2018 is 70.39 rubles. Elections to the US Congress will be held on November 6, and after this date, Republicans and Democrats can resume discussions on anti-Russian sanctions.

Dollar Forecast for December 2018

The consensus forecast for the dollar to ruble exchange rate for December 2018 is 68.25 rubles. The focus of the market is the last meeting of the Fed this year, which will clarify the plans of the central bank for 2019.

66.55 rubles, exceeding the mark of 66 rubles. for the first time since November 2016. The TASS-DOSIER editors have prepared a report on the dynamics of the ruble against the dollar in 2017-2018.

2017

For the New Year holidays of January 1-10, 2017, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the official dollar exchange rate at 59.9 rubles. According to the results of the previous 2016, the ruble was able to strengthen against the dollar by 16.9% due to the stabilization of oil prices, achieved as a result of November negotiations between the member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as well as Russia, Azerbaijan and Oman to reduce production fuel.

The largest growth of the ruble against the dollar in 2017 occurred on February 15: the official exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar was increased by 97 kopecks the next day. rub. - up to 56.77 rubles. (growth by 2.43%).

By June 2017, thanks to stable oil prices ($54-55), the exchange rate of the American currency was in the corridor of 56-59 rubles. The lowest dollar exchange rate was recorded on April 26 - 55.85 rubles.

A new decline in the ruble began on June 14 after the second increase in the base rate of the US Federal Reserve. Simultaneously with this decision, due to reports of an increase in commercial reserves in the US, oil prices began to fall. On June 21, a barrel of Brent oil became cheaper than $45 for the first time since November.

Although in mid-July oil prices returned to the level of $47-48 per barrel, and on July 20 they exceeded $50, the ruble continued to fall.

The biggest fall of the ruble in 2017 against the dollar was recorded on June 21, when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the exchange rate of the Russian currency the next day by 1 ruble. 42 kop. - up to 60 rubles. per dollar (daily fall of 2.43%).

As noted in the Ministry of Economic Development, the Russian currency fell due to the recovery of domestic demand and, taking into account the seasonal factor, this led to a negative current account balance. Also, pressure on the ruble was exerted by the bill supported by the US Congress on new sanctions against Russia.

On August 4, the maximum dollar and euro exchange rate since the beginning of 2017 was marked - 60.75 rubles. and 71.95 rubles. In the middle of the month, the dollar again became cheaper than 60 rubles. and remained within the limits of 57-59 rubles until the end of the year, briefly exceeding this mark in December.

On December 6, 2017, in an interview with Gazeta.R y, the Minister of Economic Development of Russia Maxim Oreshkin said that "the ruble is trading approximately where it should be traded, based on all our model estimates and the level that is necessary to balance the balance of payments" .

On December 29, 2017, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the exchange rate for the New Year holidays at 57.6 rubles. per dollar. Thus, in 2017 the dollar exchange rate decreased by 3.83%.

2018

On April 9, 2018, the exchange rate of the US dollar for the first time since November 16, 2017 exceeded the level of 60 rubles. per unit of US currency. Until April 9, the dollar exchange rate never went beyond the corridor of 56-57 rubles.

The biggest fall of the ruble in 2018 against the dollar was recorded on April 9, when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the Russian currency the next day by 74 kopecks. up to 58.57 rubles. per dollar (1.28% daily drop). Another major depreciation of the ruble occurred on February 8, when the dollar rose by 0.72 rubles. up to 57.67 rubles. (1.26% daily drop).

The largest growth of the ruble against the dollar in the year occurred on February 15: the official rate was raised by 1 ruble the next day. - up to 56.59 rubles. (growth by 1.28%).

Many people would like to know how the exchange rate of the national currency will change in the near future. The interest of stock speculators and traders is quite understandable - they earn money on its fluctuations, but for ordinary citizens this information can be much more useful than it seems.

The weakening of the national currency leads to an increase in inflation, and is reflected in the prices of goods and products. The strength and weakness of the currency affects bank interest rates on loans and deposits, the mortgage lending program and many other financial indicators.

The main world currency is the US dollar, because it is to it that the main currency pairs and raw materials are tied. Therefore, the strength of the national currency largely depends on how its value changes in relation to the USD.

The American currency depends on many factors, which can be conditionally divided into economic and political ones. The latter include geopolitical events involving the United States and the political situation within the country.

Since the geopolitical interests of the United States are represented all over the world, any tension in the situation can have a strong impact on the USD. An example of this is the conflict with the DPRK, when any statements by the leaders of both sides have a serious impact on the quotes of the American currency.

Political tension in the United States itself is expressed by the age-old confrontation between Democrats and Republicans, which is expressed in problems in the adoption of various laws and reforms. For example, in November-December 2017, the dollar fluctuated very strongly in anticipation of the adoption of the tax reform proposed by President Trump.

There are quite a few economic factors affecting the USD, and here are the main ones:

• the cost of oil;
• interest rate decisions by the Fed;
• yield of government bonds;
• various economic indicators and indices;
• natural disasters.

The price of oil is a strong catalyst for many banknotes. In the case of the dollar, an increase in the cost of a barrel of oil negatively affects the currency, and a decrease leads to an increase in the USD. The explanation for this is very simple - oil is traded in US dollars and with the growth of its cost, the need for the American currency for purchase increases, and the demand for currency leads to an increase in its quotations.

The interest rate of the Central Bank (in the case of the US - the Fed) has an impact on credit policy within the country. A high interest rate encourages savings and currency savings, and a low interest rate encourages more active spending.

The situation is similar with the yield of government bonds - the higher it is, the more attractive the American currency is for investors. Economic indicators have a short-term impact on the currency, as they are published once a week. But natural disasters, or rather their consequences can seriously bring down any currency, in August 2017 the USD collapsed due to the activity of Hurricane Harvey.

In 2017, the weighted average exchange rate of the US dollar amounted to 58.33 rubles. Its monthly dynamics from January to November is shown in the chart.

When compiling the budget of the Russian Federation for 2018, the average annual dollar exchange rate was 64.7 rubles. Compared to 2017, economists of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation predict growth of the American currency by 10.92%. But some analysts of private investment companies are less optimistic in their forecasts. They predict a drop in the Russian currency to 90 rubles per dollar, although most experts still predict the value of quotes in the range of 65-75 rubles.

Head of Investment Department, Management Company Raiffeisen Capital, Vladimir Vedeneev, believes that in 2018 the ruble will be strongly influenced by the strengthening of anti-Russian sanctions by the United States and the EU, as well as the growth of geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia. All this can lead to the growth of the American currency above the mark of 70 rubles.

Approximately the same position is taken by the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Oreshkin. According to his most pessimistic forecasts, in 2018 the dollar should not exceed 67 rubles, and the most likely scenario is 63 rubles. for 1$. And although the official assures that sharp fluctuations should not be expected, he still does not explain the reasons for which The ruble will fall in price by almost 10%.

In turn, his colleague, leading analyst at AMarkets Artem Deev, warns that in 2018 there is a very high probability of falling prices for black gold. This is due to the fact that OPEC member countries, in order not to lose the market, can increase the production of cheap oil. This, in turn, can reduce the price of oil to $40, and drag the ruble to the line of 80 units per dollar.

The growth of the dollar to the mark of 70 rubles is predicted by the director of the analytical department of the Alpari company Alexander Razuvaev. But, in his opinion, the fundamental thing in this case will not be the price of oil, but the outflow of foreign capital from government debt securities of the Russian Federation, due to a possible new round of anti-Russian sanctions. Moreover, the fall can be very rapid up to 12-15% per month.

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich, believes that the political component will allow the ruble to hold its positions in 2017. This is due to the fact that after the March elections, the transfer of power to other hands is unlikely. This means that the chosen vector of the country's economic development will not change. That is, the political and economic situation in the country will remain stable, and investors love this very much.

conclusions

Forecasting is a very difficult and often thankless task. And it is practically impossible to predict changes in the exchange rate of such a currency as USD against RUR, and even a year ahead. If we take as a basis already known events (elections in the Russian Federation, current anti-Russian sanctions) and assume that no excesses will occur in world geopolitics and economics, the value of the dollar at the end of 2018 will be approximately 65 rubles.

This figure is due to the fact that, despite the predicted outcome of the March elections in the Russian Federation, in anticipation of this event, the Russian currency will decline. And further smooth strengthening of the dollar will be associated with good forecasts of economists and analysts on the development of the economy of the United States of America.

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