They buy for rent. Buying for rent Is it worth it now to buy an apartment for rent

Experts spoke about how the sanctions will affect the affordability of housing and mortgages, as well as the development of development projects in Russia

Photo: Alexander Tarasenkov/Interpress/TASS

On April 6, the US Treasury imposed sanctions against Russian billionaires, top managers and officials. This caused a collapse in stock prices of Russian companies. At the same time, a sharp weakening of the ruble exchange rate was noted.

“The US strategy is to reduce investor interest in any Russian companies”

Maria Litinetskaya, managing partner of Metrium, member of the CBRE partner network

- Shares of Russian development companies on international stock exchanges fell, although neither these companies nor their leaders were included in the sanctions list. For example, LSR shares fell 9%, while Etalon Group fell 11%. The fact is that the strategy of the American administration is aimed at a general decrease in the investor's interest in any Russian companies. Investors do not know, relatively speaking, who will be next, so the shares of all domestic players sank. In the future, this situation may hinder the access of Russian developers to foreign capital markets, although their importance for the industry is minimal.

Sanctions may affect the Russian real estate market as a whole primarily indirectly, through the deterioration of the economic situation. For example, yesterday, due to the fall in domestic stock prices, the ruble noticeably weakened. Since Russia is still largely dependent on imports, any strengthening of the dollar and the euro leads to higher prices for everything, including building materials, and at the same time the ability to pay potential homebuyers suffers. Accordingly, the acceleration of inflation and the difficulty of domestic banks' access to cheap loans in the West will become a big obstacle to reducing the key rate of the Central Bank, as well as increasing the availability of mortgages.

"Sanctions may affect banks - leaders in mortgages"

Dmitry Trubnikov, Financial Director of A101 Group of Companies

- Presence on the stock exchange expands the company's capabilities and plays on the reputation among customers and counterparties, but does not have a critical impact on performance - if only because the real estate market is very local. As far as we know, all public companies involved in the development business continue to operate normally and do not experience any difficulties in fulfilling their obligations.

Much more serious impact on the construction industry may affect the impact of circumstances on the major banks under sanctions, including the current leaders in the field of mortgage lending. Mortgage has been the main driver of demand for the second year in a row, the share of transactions with its use is constantly increasing and now stands at about 65%. A decrease in capitalization may limit their ability of banks in this area.

In addition, the imminent entry into force of amendments to 214-FZ will make banks both the only source of financing for development projects and the holder of escrow accounts, which will accumulate funds received from buyers of apartments in new buildings before they are put into operation. Long before the imposition of sanctions, the questions of the readiness and ability of banks to fully replace the mechanisms for raising funds under remote debt, as well as public confidence in the banking industry as a whole, remained open. If the negative consequences of the sanctions are not leveled in the near future, these issues will become even more acute.

"Buyers' incomes will become too low to buy a home"

Marina Tolstik, Managing Partner, Miel-Network of Real Estate Offices

- The fall of the ruble and the growth of the dollar and the euro will definitely spur demand for real estate, because this is the only tool with which an ordinary citizen of our country can try to save their savings, which are rapidly losing value. Accordingly, the growth in demand will cause faster absorption of the exposed offers, reduced competition and the opportunity for sellers to keep prices, providing a smaller discount. Naturally, real estate prices will rise.

If the fall in the stock markets turns out to be protracted, then the growth in demand for real estate will be followed by another stagnation in real estate: everyone who wants and has time to buy apartments will do it, and the rest of the income level will become too low to solve housing problems.

“Demand for suburban real estate will fall”

Dmitry Taganov, head of the analytical center "Inkom-Nedvizhimost":

- It cannot be said that the initiatives of the American authorities will lead to some global changes in the primary housing market in the capital region. Yes, individual large entrepreneurs have lost some of their funds, but their personal interests have suffered, and not the real estate market as a whole.

However, the macroeconomic situation may become much more complicated if not individual, but so-called sectoral sanctions are introduced, affecting different industries. But their introduction can affect the real estate market only indirectly. The consequences of sanctions in some industries may be the reduction of jobs, bonus payments and other salary bonuses.

Due to the fall in the solvency of the population, the demand for real estate will decrease, and to a greater extent this will affect suburban housing, which is still in a state of stagnation. But the segment of new buildings feels quite comfortable. And what is especially significant is that it was in the last few years (just when the sanctions were in effect) that we recorded a colossal increase in the volume of supply in the “primary” sector of both the capital and the Moscow region.

"The weakening of the ruble will attract home buyers to the market"

Pavel Poselenov, President of the Ingrad Development Group

— Real estate in our country has been and remains one of the most reliable assets for saving money during periods of political and economic upheavals. The foreign policy situation did not change yesterday, but 2017 and the beginning of 2018 showed the presence and growth of stable effective demand, including due to lower mortgage rates. In less than four years, demand has recovered.

It is possible that the weakening of the ruble will cause an increase in demand and the entry into the market of those buyers who planned to buy and fear the devaluation of the national currency. In any case, now it is important to make a choice in favor of a reliable developer with a diversified portfolio, who knows how to work with quality both with the product and with the price.

“Development projects of the defendants are unlikely to suffer”

Sergey Lobzhanidze, director of the analytical platform bnMAP.pro:

— Sanctions are not introduced for the first time. The measures taken earlier against the largest banks did not reveal a significant impact on the housing market: there was no increase in mortgage lending rates, on the contrary, rates are systematically decreasing, the share of mortgage transactions is growing. The residential real estate market is mainly focused on the domestic buyer. Therefore, the companies trading on world markets will be the first to suffer from the new sanctions.

Yes, the new sanctions list includes companies that include development structures - these are the holdings "Basic Element" and "Renova". Their subsidiaries are currently actively building in Moscow, the Moscow region and some regions of Russia. The product of these companies is focused mainly on the domestic market - as the analysis of transactions for their projects confirms, the demand is mainly local. Thus, the sanctions should not have a significant impact on the development of these projects. On the contrary, the market is likely to increase demand in a number of segments of residential real estate on the part of emigrants and "reverse settlers".

Daromir Obukhanich, General Director of MIC Group

— The Russian real estate market as a sector of the Russian economy cannot fail to respond to foreign policy factors. The current volatility of exchange rates, the weakening of the ruble may provoke an increase in demand, but to a greater extent this is a projection of the short term. The reaction of buying activity is more likely to become an expression of a stress scenario, when the need to save one's savings increases in the face of uncertainty.

But in the long term, new sanctions further complicate the country's economic situation, which, of course, does not encourage Russian business. The depreciation of the Russian currency as a result of the collapse of Russian indices by 9% due to external pressure will affect the solvency of the population, the purchasing power will decrease.

In addition, there is a possibility that the Central Bank will increase the key rate, and this may lead to an increase in the cost of credit resources, in particular mortgages and credit lines for developers, which will lead to a change in the offer price. Thus, it is difficult to predict the development of demand in the standard housing segment, which is currently maintaining tense stability, which means it is difficult to predict the dynamics of the market.

"Development projects will rise in price"

Aidar Galeev, Head of Strategic Consulting Department, RRG

— The set of sanctions, apparently, is far from over. In particular, they started talking about a ban on the purchase of Russian government and corporate bonds, which is very serious. And what anti-sanctions might be (like the food embargo) and how they will affect the Russian economy, it is generally impossible to imagine.

In any case, it is clear that nothing good will happen. A decrease in revenues, the value of shares of companies subject to sanctions will inevitably lead to an increase in the cost of financing any investment projects, including development projects, a decrease in profits, etc. Many companies associated with them will also suffer. In this situation, the simplest (but does not mean that the most correct) way out is to stop investment (development) projects, review them and sell them. But to date, it is not possible to assess the scale of this negative effect.

“External shock could delay planned legislative initiatives”

Olga Shirokova, Director of Consulting and Sales Management Departments for Residential Projects at Knight Frank

- On the one hand, the real estate market is much more stress-resistant, and here we are in a much better position than the stock market or currencies. And developers, investors and buyers simply do not have time to react to short-term shocks. On the other hand, if, for example, we talk about the residential real estate market in Moscow, then there are enough of their own irritants. This is a significant volume of supply, and legislative initiatives, and echoes of changes in the banking sector.

Possibly, based on objective prerequisites and having received an additional subjective impulse, the residential real estate market will find itself in a zone of instability. And perhaps today's external shock will contribute to the easing of market regulation and the postponement / cancellation of a number of legislative initiatives planned for the summer of 2018.

“A quick reaction of the real estate market is not worth waiting for”

Vladimir Sergunin, Partner at Colliers International

— It is unlikely that these sanctions will directly affect the activities of Russian development companies, whose owners are included in the new list. However, if the sanctions affect the operations of major players in the Russian economy (such as a drop in RUSAL quotes after a possible default was announced), this could cause further unbalancing of exchange rates and negative pressure on the financial market and the economy as a whole.

At the same time, the government's announced program to provide assistance to companies whose owners fell under sanctions will be aimed at preventing a possible spill over effect in the real sectors of the economy, including real estate. At the same time, the real estate market is much less volatile than the market for financial instruments and currencies, the reaction to changes usually occurs within four to six months, so you should not expect an immediate reaction.

“Builders must learn to adapt to change”

Tatyana Podkidysheva, Sales Director of NDV-Real Estate Supermarket

— The real estate market has gone through ups and downs associated with political turbulence and sanctions, and news about the expansion of the list of companies that fall into the sanctions list no longer causes such consequences as before. Business has learned to live in the new conditions, and, despite the fact that there is no political unfreezing towards Russia, the recent improvements in our economy have a positive effect on domestic demand.

The main problems in the real estate segment are now in a different plane. This is the need to build processes in a dense market and reforming the industry, which requires effective management from developers and the ability to adapt to changes. The compensating factor is the introduction of more affordable mortgages. The terms are attractive to Russian realities, not to mention the commercial subsidization of interest rates.

“Retail property rental rates may go down”

Olesya Dziuba, Head of Research at JLL

- For real estate, the plus is that after the devaluation of the Russian currency in 2014, the rental market moved into the ruble zone and the current dynamics of the ruble will not have a serious impact on rental conditions. Nevertheless, the most tangible effect for the commercial real estate market may be the effect of a further prolonged weakening of the ruble.

Exporting companies may put on hold their plans to expand office space or move to higher quality premises. Importing companies can pause the development of their logistics platforms. Companies that have loans in foreign currency will be forced to refinance them in rubles: as a result, the cost of bank financing will increase for them. Growth in consumer prices may increase, which will negatively affect the purchasing power of Russians. Given that rental rates for commercial real estate, as a rule, depend on turnover, this may lead to a decrease in rental rates for retail premises. All of the above will have an effect only in the event of a prolonged weakening of the ruble.

Given the current level of the ruble exchange rate, the impact on inflation will be limited: with a high probability, the inflation rate will remain near the 4% target level of the Central Bank. The pass-through effect on inflation, according to the latest estimates of the Central Bank, is 0.10-0.12. If the current quotations of the ruble remain, having fixed about a 10% weakening against the US dollar, from 57 to 63, then 1.0-1.2 points will be added to inflation over a 12-month horizon. Suppose that if there are no other changes, then this will lead to an increase in inflation to 5% in a year. The currency effect will then fall out of inflation, bringing it back to 4%. Under such a scenario, the Central Bank is likely to be slower in reducing interest rates.

We see such a scenario as rather negative. As a rule, sharp currency fluctuations are followed by a period of correction. Therefore, both the weakening of the ruble and its effect on inflation are likely to be much smaller and will not cause a correction in the monetary policy of the Central Bank. And the emotional effect and, as a result, increased volatility in the financial market will come to naught in the near future.

The question “what will happen to apartment prices this year” worries all potential homebuyers. Portal "Elite.RU" interviewed analysts and representatives of major real estate agencies, but the experts did not come to a consensus.

Economist, Associate Professor of the Faculty of Finance and Banking of the RANEPA Sergey Khestanov:

- I think that if we talk about ruble prices, then in the near future the Moscow housing market will continue to stagnate. And in dollars - there is a potential for decline. At the current moment in our country, the dollar exchange rate against the ruble is seriously influenced by two factors. The first one is the forthcoming presidential elections in Russia: the authorities are trying with all their might to strengthen the national currency, but the elections are just around the corner, and then the ruble exchange rate will no longer be paid as much attention as it is now. The second factor is world oil prices. In the US, production is steadily growing. So, this week, for the first time in 50 years, oil production exceeded 10 million barrels per day. And this means that sooner or later oil prices will drop, and the ruble will follow them. I think that the ruble will fall in price by 10-15%. But when and how this will happen, it is difficult to say now.

CIAN Leading Analyst Alexander Pypin:

– In the primary market, prices have been declining for a long time. It just doesn't happen explicitly. For example, by subsidizing mortgage rates, free registration of rights or ready-made finishes. And there are many such moments! Developers are forced to reduce the cost, because people do not have money to buy housing. Recently, the percentage of mortgage transactions has been constantly growing: real money is being replaced by borrowed money.

Developers will treat buyers with goodies, at least until the end of 2018

Why is the decline veiled? It's simple - people are afraid to buy a product that is getting cheaper. If this is done openly, then the psychological factor will be added to the economic factor. Those who can still afford it will also stop buying apartments. And when the developer gives gifts to buyers and “treats with buns”, then most people do not notice the fall in prices. I believe that developers will treat buyers with goodies at least until the end of 2018. And the number of "buns" will grow!

It is difficult to imagine what will happen next... The amount of money the population will not increase, but the commissioning of new housing will fall. I think that in the next three years it will decrease by 10-15% compared to the current moment. New buildings will become a fairly reliable tool for investment, but not the best - for investment. Of course, it will be possible to earn locally by buying an apartment “at the foundation stage” or next to a metro station under construction, but globally one should not count on price increases in the real estate segment in the next three years.

Chairman of the Board of Directors of BEST-Novostroy Irina Dobrokhotova:

- In the coming 2018, the pricing in the market of new buildings will primarily be affected by the tightening of legislation. From July 1, 2018, developers will switch to a new business model that will seriously complicate their lives. Accordingly, the upcoming changes will push the market to the earliest possible launch of previously planned projects for implementation, which is already evidenced by the increased interest of investors in sites with a full package of documents. Thus, there is every reason to believe that in the near future the primary housing market will be significantly replenished with new proposals, which, against the backdrop of tougher competition, will hold back price growth.

Managing Partner of Metrium Group Maria Litinetskaya:

- Now the prerequisites for price growth are being formed in the primary housing market in Moscow. On the one hand, there is an unprecedented demand for buyers, which is expressed in an unprecedented number of pre-trial detention centers. On the other hand, there is a tightening of legislation regarding the financial side of the developers' business, which will ultimately lead to higher costs and higher prices. Changes in legislation will come into force in mid-2018, so a slight downward price correction is possible in the first half of the year. It is associated with the entry into the market of a large number of new projects from developers who will strive to start implementation even within the framework of the current legislation.

The cost of construction will increase, and with it the prices

In the second half of the year, the situation will change: developer activity will subside, as far from all developers will be able to rebuild their business to meet the requirements of the law. The cost of construction will increase, and with it prices. But the level of competition will remain high, which will prevent a noticeable strong increase in value. Thus, according to our forecasts, in the mass segment prices in 2018 will increase by about 2% (up to 159-160 thousand rubles per sq. m), in the business and premium class, due to the growth in supply, the average price tag will decrease by 2 % and 4%, respectively.

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From July 1, 2018, new requirements for developers will come into effect throughout the country. Companies will no longer be able to attract money from equity holders directly - they will lie on special bank accounts until the house is handed over. Developers will have at their disposal only their own funds or targeted loans - for a specific project. All financing will have to go through a single current account, which can only be opened in a bank approved by the authorities.

In addition, market participants will be prohibited from raising funds for several projects at once. That is, one developer - one building permit. In other words, if the developer intends to build a new microdistrict, he will no longer be able to approve the documents in stages. He will have to do all the project documentation at once, and this is one of the most costly items of expenditure.

What will be the consequences for buyers and for the real estate market as a whole, experts said at a press conference in Rosbalt.

Will housing become more expensive?

“It is clear that any specialist will now tell you that such a financing scheme increases construction costs, which means that apartments should rise in price, because developers will have to pass on the increased cost to the consumer. That is, the buyer will have to pay more for his protection.

But it will most likely be different. In today's market realities, developers will not be able to raise prices for buyers. Another economic reality has come, and if in previous years housing was constantly rising in price, and not only in Moscow, but in fact throughout the country, and prices sometimes rose at times, now we see that at best they stagnate, at worst they are declining. Prices fell the most where they were most inflated. First of all, it is Moscow. The decline in prices in ruble terms from the highs of 2013-2014 amounted to about 20%, and they continue to creep down.

The market has been overstocked. Developers, trying to bring as many objects to the market as possible before the entry into force of the new rules, only exacerbated the situation. Today, much more housing is being built and offered for sale than is being sold. And if we open any site about real estate, we will see that everything is full of discounts, sales. Moreover, these discounts are not symbolic 2-3%, but real 10-15-20%. Some developers offer more than 30%. Such shares were on the Moscow business class at the end of last year. In such conditions, it will no longer be possible to shift all the additional costs of the developer to the buyer, ”says Oleg Repchenko, head of the analytical center“ Real Estate Market Indicators ”(IRN).

The rich, of course, did not win. But you should not count on them, the analyst believes. They have long bought apartments for themselves, their children, grandchildren, and five more investment ones in addition - so that it is. Therefore, developers will have to sell apartments to the most ordinary people with salaries of 30-50-70 thousand rubles a month. “We all see very well how over the past few years the prices of essential commodities have risen: food, medicines. The purchasing power of the bulk of the population is minimal. Simply put, people don't have money. Under these conditions, developers will most likely have to bear the costs and reduce their profitability,” he said.

Can everyone withstand such a load? According to Repchenko, many companies are already operating at moderate profitability. From July 1, on the one hand, the cost price will increase, on the other hand, prices will continue to fall. At the same time, under the influence of inflation, building materials will continue to rise in price. The delta between investments and profit will be reduced to a critical one.

“For all the conscientiousness of the developers, some of them may go into negative territory. Some construction sites may stop. Maybe even a significant number. I'm afraid that the next measure that the authorities will have to be puzzled with is saving developers from bankruptcy, ”the expert believes.

Different construction cycles allowed companies to invest profit from one object in another, and thereby avoid cash gaps. The principle of "one developer - one object", proclaimed by the new law, will lead to the fact that developers will stop working as an independent business and turn into contractors who are paid monthly salaries and allocate money for current expenses.

Why are developers rushing to launch more projects?

“Builders understand that later it will be more expensive to raise funds from equity holders. Uncertainty scares them even more: launching a new mechanism takes time to debug, banks have not really figured out how to work according to the new scheme. Everyone is afraid that for some time the market will rise at all. Therefore, developers are trying to withdraw as many objects as possible before July 1, 2018, in order to then attract money from equity holders for their construction according to the old scheme. The law has no retroactive effect," Repchenko said.

In the normal mode, they could hold on to the sites that have already been bought: build one house this year, the second house next, the third one in a year. But now, when no one understands what will happen next, companies prefer to launch all projects at once. Get a building permit, and work according to the old clear rules.

According to IRN, even if after July 1 new projects cease to appear at all, the volume of supply that has developed on the Moscow market will be more than enough for another three years.

For buyers, this situation is beneficial. Prices have fallen, developers are ready to give big discounts. But, of course, there is a risk that the company will go bankrupt from overexerting its efforts or resources.

What do banks guarantee?

According to the law, all the time while the house is being built, the money of equity holders must be kept in special accounts in banks chosen by the state.

“Investors' money will simply lie in bank accounts for several years. At the same time, developers in the same banks will take loans to carry out construction, ”said Oleg Frolov, lawyer of the Consumer Rights Protection Society (housing law).

“According to the new scheme, the bank acts as a guarantor for the equity holder that his money will not go to the side, and will be directed to its intended purpose. That the developer will not waste them, will not steal them, and will complete the house. But in fact, the bank cannot and should not control the construction process, it does not have such a function, ”the lawyer emphasized.

According to him, to date, no one has thought about what will happen if the developer fails to hand over the object. “According to the law, it is possible to withdraw the money of equity holders from the account only when the house has been handed over. But if not? Shareholders will also not be able to terminate the contract and demand money from the developer, because the developer did not receive this money. This means that the bank will have to take all the risks. I don’t think he will be interested in this, ”said the OZPP expert.

Despite banking control, the risk that developers will simply go into the red and go bankrupt remains, agreed the head of the IRN Oleg Repchenko. “Many of them naively believe that “prices must rise, but how else”. And then it turns out, as in that song: “Everything will work out when oil prices rise. And if not?“ If prices do not rise, it may turn out that the developer does not have enough money to complete all the houses that he launched.

Most likely, if the developers start going bankrupt, the very state-owned banks that were given funding will be obliged to take the construction companies for themselves. We have seen such examples since 2008. Several fairly large developers have already gone under state banks and changed owners, ”the analyst noted.

According to him, if the state does not have a hole in the budget, most likely the houses will be completed, and buyers will receive their apartments. “Unless, of course, the deterioration of the global situation does not lead to the fact that it will be necessary to throw funding for some other more important state tasks,” the expert noted.

How long does it take for the law to work?

“Builders brought out a maximum of new objects before July 1. They will build and sell them according to the old rules for at least another two or three years, maybe more. I think that new projects, if they appear, are extremely rare. The effect of protecting equity holders will begin to operate in a few years, when those houses that are already ready or are being built now will be completed and sold. That is, the new law is not about protecting current buyers, but some future ones,” Repchenko believes.

The bank account scheme might not work at all, he said. “What is the point for a developer to sell apartments at an early stage below the market if he still does not receive this money? They will receive the bank, which still have to take a loan. Wouldn't it be better to just take a loan from the bank instead of any tripartite agreements and sales. To build a house on this loan, and sell it as a ready-made housing, for which no special laws are no longer in effect.

Yes, there can be hybrid schemes as a preliminary contract of sale, for example, for booking an apartment. That is, you contribute some part of the money to reserve a specific apartment, and you buy it when the house is already built.

As for buyers, why should they keep money in special accounts for two or three years? It is better to deposit them in the same bank or buy national bonds. During the time the house is being built, they will receive about 20% of their 10 million rubles, which were originally. And they will be able to buy an apartment in a finished house, even if it is more expensive than at the initial stage,” the analyst noted.

Thus, an attempt by the state to link the buyer and the developer through a bank may not be viable. But one way or another, there will be less long-term construction and deceived equity holders. The market is moving towards this, Repchenko believes.

“Why did they buy housing from a foundation pit? Prices were rising, and it was necessary to have time to buy cheaper. What is happening now? People who bought apartments from a foundation pit in 2014 see that finished housing costs the same, and sometimes even cheaper. Some terminate the contract and buy an apartment again, receiving the difference. For many developers, this is a real problem. So, people are beginning to understand: why buy from a foundation pit, when you can wait and buy an apartment in a ready-made house. Less risk, same price. I think that soon we will be selling ready-made new buildings, as is the case in many countries of the world. Issues of deceived equity holders will be resolved by themselves,” he said.

Can the law be circumvented?

Lawyer of the Society for the Protection of Consumer Rights (Housing Law) Oleg Frolov recalled that the law on participation in shared construction was adopted back in 2004. “But in my experience, back in 2009-2010, it was not strictly observed. To evade responsibility, the developers entered into a preliminary sale and purchase agreement, created similarities of housing cooperatives. We often had to admit in court that in fact we are talking about equity participation, and the buyer has the right to demand the same liability from the developer as under the DDU, ”said the lawyer.

According to him, from 2004 until now the law has been specified and changed 16 times. “There is no need to think that now the world will change, and all the problems of equity holders will be solved. From July 1, 2018, nothing will happen. Those who received permission before July 1 will complete the projects in the old way,” Frolov said.

To circumvent the law, developers can resort to old schemes: conclude preliminary contracts, or create housing cooperatives. Such an opportunity, according to the lawyer, now exists. “We cannot force everyone to work only according to the new scheme. This means that we cannot guarantee security for equity holders either, ”Frolov believes.

How will the process of buying apartments in new buildings change?

Under the new scheme, buyers sign a tripartite agreement, where both the developer and the bank act as parties. And the buyer no longer gives the money to the construction company, but to the bank. “But if you sign an agreement in 2019, this does not mean that your house will be built according to the new law. Developers can use the transitional situation as a publicity stunt, declaring that they are working according to the new scheme, although contracts are signed according to the old one. This must be understood, and first of all, pay attention to what kind of contract they propose to sign. The worst thing is a preliminary sale and purchase agreement, which, in fact, does not involve the transfer of money, and only says that the person intends to buy an apartment from the developer when the house is completed. By signing such an agreement, buyers will no longer be able to use the rights that the DDU secures, ”Frolov emphasized.

“For those who want to be calm, I advise you to buy housing after 2019, when it will be clear how the scheme works,” he added.

Who will complete the long-term construction?

In a situation where the developer is allowed to spend money only on a specific project, it may turn out that there will be no one and nothing to finish building the existing problematic houses. According to Repchenko, it is more profitable for both the buyer and the state when the developer acts not as a function, but as a real businessman who is able to resolve difficult situations on the market.

“In the policy of controlling developers, it is important not to overdo it so that developers as entrepreneurs do not cease to exist. Or, in the end, the state will have to take everything into balance, buy out all construction companies and make them state-owned. Will such a machine as in the Soviet Union turn out to be large and inefficient? Repchenko concluded.

Anna Semenets

Real estate market experts made predictions about the situation in the primary and secondary markets of the Moscow region next year

In 2018, realtors expect the main trends of recent years in the housing market of the Moscow region to continue - a decrease in demand, an increase in supply and a fall in prices.

Experts also call 2018 the year of uncertainty in the new-build market due to new requirements for developers and cheap mortgages.

Analysts told RBC-Nedvizhimost what to expect for sellers and buyers of housing in the primary, secondary and suburban markets of Moscow and the Moscow region in the new 2018.

New buildings

“The volume of supply of new buildings will continue to grow faster than demand”

Maria Litinetskaya, managing partner of Metrium Group, member of the CBRE partner network:

— In 2018, the main trends that we have been observing in the market since at least 2016 will develop. The annual volume of supply in Old Moscow will increase from 3.7 million sq. m (according to the forecast for the end of 2017) to 4.25 million sq. m (+15%). At the same time, demand, that is, the total area purchased during the year of housing, will increase from 2.25 million square meters. m to 2.36 million sq. m (+5%). In other words, we believe that the volume of supply will continue to grow faster than demand, and the gap between these values ​​in the market will even increase slightly. If now supply exceeds demand by about 2.6 times, then by the end of 2018 this figure may rise to 2.8.

Accordingly, price stagnation is likely to continue. According to the preliminary results of 2017, the price per square meter in the mass segment increased by 2.3%. We are unlikely to see explosive growth next year, as competition will only intensify and demand growth is not enough to restore the balance between the number of apartments and solvent buyers willing to pay for them.

However, 2018 is likely to be a year of uncertainty. On the one hand, there are prerequisites for a forced increase in demand - a further reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, as well as announced programs to support certain groups of buyers. On the other hand, the Central Bank plans to somewhat tighten the policy of issuing loans, and the real growth in incomes of the population has not yet begun. In addition, the upward trend in the volume of supply may be interrupted by mid-2018 due to the entry into force of amendments to 214-FZ, as well as preparations for the transition to project financing instead of equity. In other words, market trends in 2018 will largely be determined by the political and regulatory decisions of the authorities.

“Ahead is a difficult time, and I would like to hope that the efforts of the state will help the sector of new buildings”

Alexander Khrustalev, General Director of NDV-Nedvizhimost:

- The real estate market is going through turning points: in connection with the refusal of shared construction, we are waiting for the inevitable and gradual increase in prices for new buildings. Over the next year and a half, we will see an increase of 15-20% or more to the current value of the proposal. Prices will rise, otherwise it will be a completely non-market model. “Money costs money”, and the new scheme, unlike the free attraction of funds from equity holders, is more heavyweight for developers.

Moscow has greatly increased the volume of construction and commissioning of housing, which will allow it to pull over part of the demand for itself, however, for the Moscow region, the upcoming 2018 will be even more difficult. The market in the Moscow region will begin to sag due to the rampant growth in building permits that occurred earlier. They gave out so many that now they don’t know what to do. Especially considering the number of buyers-investors who will find themselves in a difficult situation.

Behind each of the developers are hundreds and thousands of people who have purchased housing. How will all this be completed, how will the previously undertaken obligations be fulfilled? Ahead is a difficult time, and I would like to hope that the efforts of the state will help the sector.

The announced reduced rate program for families with two and three children has good prospects. There are a significant number of such buyers, so those young families who decide to purchase housing will become a real demand driver next year for the new building market. In addition to oil and gas, one of the main sectors of economic development will continue to be housing construction.

Secondary market

“Most likely, we will not see an increase in prices in the secondary market”

Oksana Vrazhnova, Chairman of the Board of Miel Group of Companies:

“The 2018 market will remain a buyer's market that will continue to set the tone. At the same time, it will also remain a “buy for yourself” market, that is, the share of investment transactions will be extremely small. Most likely, we will not see an increase in prices in the secondary market, more likely to continue the downward correction. This is due to many factors: a wide supply of objects on the secondary market, a large volume of new buildings, which partially draw off demand, and, most importantly, the lack of economic preconditions for the growth of the population's well-being.

In addition, if a large amount of square meters enters the market during the implementation of the renovation program, this may also contribute to lower prices. Today, many sellers understand this situation and are easier to bargain. The share of purchases in the cheapest segment continues to grow - up to 6 million rubles, and in 2018 this trend is likely to continue. The share of mortgage transactions in the secondary market today exceeds 40%, and in connection with new programs to support families with children that will start working in 2018, this share can grow significantly and reach 60%, or maybe 70%.

“About 80% of transactions in the secondary market will be carried out using mortgages”

Yulia Dymova, director of the Est-a-Tet resale property sales office:

— In 2018, prices on the secondary market are expected to drop by up to 10%, while the volume of supply will remain at a fairly high level due to the departure of non-professional investors. Demand, on the other hand, will remain limited, so sellers will have to discount even more in the future.

In addition, we expect a further decrease in mortgage rates, which may lead to a slight stimulation of demand. It is possible that next year about 80% of transactions will be carried out using mortgage lending.

Country housing

“2018 will be the year of global optimization of the suburban real estate market”

Andrey Kroitor, director of the suburban real estate department of Inkom-Nedvizhimost:

— 2018 will be the year of global optimization of the suburban real estate market. Large developers will continue to absorb small ones, buyers who still have money will spend it very deliberately and will definitely not overpay for the purchased goods. There are fewer and fewer new settlements, they will only have the most necessary infrastructure - for example, a store and a playground, for the rest you will have to contact the nearest settlement.

Among suburban objects, small ones will be in demand, within 100-120 square meters. m, townhouses and cottages, as well as plots of 8-10 acres. One should not expect miracles from demand: it will continue to decline within 10-15%, as well as average market prices. Market players will begin to purposefully reduce possible costs, both in the field of construction and sales. It will not be easy for realtors, whose services they will try to save. Of the positive trends, I would note the decrease in interest rates on mortgages, which, according to our expectations, may become a demand driver first in the segment of new buildings, and then in the “fence”.

What to expect from the Russian real estate market in 2018? Will house prices rise or fall? 2018 will be favorable for those who are going to buy real estate, especially for the secondary market, which will continue to fall. There is a downside for those who are going to sell real estate. Last year, there was such an opinion among experts that now, during the period of economic stagnation, it is profitable to acquire real estate, and selling is not very profitable. The same situation will be observed in 2018.

Real estate prices in Russia in 2018: forecasts and expert opinion

Considering that the ruble has fallen against the dollar over the past few years, there has been no increase in real estate prices, and in dollar terms, real estate has almost halved in price. The main factor holding back the rise in prices is the purchasing power of the population. For buyers, the most favorable situation will develop in the secondary market. In 2018, the downward trend in real estate prices in the secondary market will continue. There are many factors that led to the fall of the secondary market. The main of these factors is demand. The most stable real estate markets can be called large metropolitan areas, where rentals are in great demand, as there is a constant influx of visitors.

Key factors due to which real estate prices in the secondary market will not grow

Conclusion: will real estate prices rise in 2018?

Secondary market

Experts agree that in 2018 real estate on the secondary market will continue to fall. In many cities and regions of the Russian Federation, an identical situation can be observed, where demand is lower than supply. Some objects on the secondary market may be unsuccessfully sold for several years.

primary market

In the primary market, only those objects that are of high quality construction, have a good location and transport accessibility can show high growth. Over the year, real estate in new buildings has risen in price insignificantly - by an average of 2-6% (depending on the region). Exactly the same situation will take shape in 2018. Real estate in the primary market will rise in price within the limits of inflation, which is expected to be within 2-4%.

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