Donbass will be a Russian state. Why is Russia not joining Donbass. Predictions from the strongest psychics for Ukraine

Since the spring of 2014, information has been received from the fronts of Novorossiya almost every day about the dead and wounded on both sides. Despite the ceasefire, the Minsk agreements, despite the OSCE mission working here, the shootings do not stop for a day. Both we and the world began to get used to these deaths, the passions that once raged, gradually subsided.

V Recently, a discussion has flared up again about how Russia should deal with the unrecognized Donetsk republics. Even very qualified experts are perplexed why the top Russian leadership hesitates and does not dare to take the step that all Russian people have long awaited from them: they will not accept the DPR / LPR into the Russian Federation - by analogy with Crimea.

According to Mikhail Remizov, President of the Institute for National Strategy, the scenario of the return of Donbass to Ukraine implied by the Minsk Protocol is not feasible. And he offers an alternative option: to distribute Russian passports.

Political scientist and writer Vadim Samodurov agrees with Mikhail Remizov. He also thinks that it is necessary “to start implementing the idea, which has already been repeatedly expressed, about distributing Russian passports to residents of the DPR and LPR. They should not be in a restrained position on the territory of the Russian Federation. Otherwise it turns out that it is easier for a citizen with a Ukrainian passport to get a job than for a citizen with a passport of the republics. "

Vadim Samodurov is completely disappointed in the Minsk agreements.

Both experts proceed primarily from humanitarian considerations. Indeed, the residents of the Donbass republics have a hard time. And it's not just the daily shelling like the one in Avdiivka - they only add black paint. The main thing that the DPR and LPR lack is a legal status, without which it is difficult to establish economic life in the region, trade, and, therefore, provide socially active people with work, and old people with pensions.

Therefore, the idea of ​​universal certification of Donbass residents is literally in the air. Even in official Russian circles. For example, Leonid Kalashnikov, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, said this at a meeting in the State Duma with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

But the Kremlin hesitates, although everything seems to be obvious. And the main question: why were the Crimeans lucky, but the Donetsk residents not? In order to answer this question, one will have to recall the history of such conflicts.

WITH Among the republics recognized by Russia, not only Crimea (it existed as an independent state for several hours, which was enough to apply on its behalf with a request to join the Russian Federation, which was satisfied), but also Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But Russia does not recognize Transnistria as an independent entity. And there is a good reason for that.

The fact is that Crimea is still listed as a separate section in the Ukrainian constitution, just as Abkhazia and South Ossetia are in the Georgian one. That is, in the legal sense, all three republics have always had a special status as part of the states they were part of. So, they were recognized by the United Nations Organization.

But Transnistria, Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics are unknown as subjects of UN international law. In the situation with Crimea, we have an invulnerable legal position, but if we recognize the independence of the DPR / LPR, and even more so we satisfy the request of their residents and include the territories in the Russian Federation, then such a step will be an obvious annexation. Roughly speaking, we would cut a piece of Ukrainian territory.

By the way, it is precisely this option that we are now and again pushed by bosom enemies from both the Western capitals and from his own quasi-patriotic opposition, and Petro Poroshenko at one time directly offered to take the Donbass to Vladimir Putin. However, such a “gift” is a ticking time bomb; we would be forever labeled as a country that is wiping its feet on international law.

They may object to me: the residents of Transnistria have Russian citizenship, although the PMR itself is not recognized by anyone, including Russia. Right. But certification in this unrecognized republic took place even during the collapse of the USSR, when people had the right to choose which Soviet republic they would like to become citizens of. The residents of Donbass, let me remind you, in 1991 voted for life in independent Ukraine and received her passports.

The events of recent years have shown that their decision was a mistake that now needs to be corrected. However, the radical method offered by our hotheads is hardly suitable for this. Including very authoritative ones.

WITH It is no coincidence that the Minsk Agreements state that Ukraine is obliged to give Donbass a special status and to amend its constitution accordingly. The new constitution with clearly marked DNR / LNR borders will be sent to the UN, and the international community will finally learn that Ukraine has two republics, and not just regions with separatist sentiments that exist in almost every EU country, and now there are in the USA. Then their residents will have the right to hold referendums on their territories in the presence of international observers, and their results will have to be recognized by the international community. This is the only option in which the DPR / LPR can subsequently become part of the Russian Federation, if they want. And if we don't mind, of course.

Those who criticize the Minsk agreements are largely right - there is no mechanism to force Ukraine to comply with them point by point. Kiev is well aware that the special status of Donbass, introduced into the constitution, will lead not only to the republics gaining full-fledged independence, but also, most likely, to centrifugal phenomena in other regions. That is why the hawks resist Minsk-2 so fiercely, they come up with all sorts of reasons not to fulfill their obligations, they interpret the provisions of the document that has the status of a UN Security Council resolution in a very childish way.

And yet, the Minsk agreements remain the main and only document with which it is possible to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. Yes, the Maidan authorities torpedo them, perhaps rallying themselves or waiting for the cards in the geopolitical game to fall in their favor. Although judging by the latest trends, there will no longer be a successful alignment.

However, we also do not force events, realizing that the leader has already changed in the United States, and we still have to build relations with him, including in Ukraine, and in France, perhaps an adequate president will soon come to power, with whom more can be achieved in Norman. format. In geopolitics, it is generally not customary to rush.

Moscow intends to solve the problem of Donbass not alone, as Washington recently solved all over the world, but together with the permanent members of the UN Security Council. First of all, with Germany, France and the United States.

A for now, unfortunately, we bear the burden of maintaining the DPR / LPR, because otherwise a humanitarian catastrophe will indeed occur there. But if the republics were suddenly admitted to the Russian Federation, the costs would have increased by an order of magnitude. In the end, Ukraine gradually began to pay pensions and salaries to Donetsk residents. Although reluctantly, and not in full.

The Kremlin does not want to commit a gross violation of international law, no matter how it is pushed to a rash step from all sides. Until now, Russia remains almost the only country in the world that has not deviated one iota from the UN Charter - neither in Syria, nor in Ukraine, nor in Moldova, nor in Georgia. And it is unlikely to ever back down.
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More about Ukraine

KIEV HAS SEIZED BY RUSSIA SHOOTING ON AN-26 OWNERSHIP In social networks, the photos that were posted on his Facebook by the Minister of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mikhail Poltorak. According to him, "the 3-centimeter bullet hole is the consequences of the firing of an aircraft from small arms." Most of the users paid attention to the fact that the inlet from the bullet is on top. It has been suggested that the plane could fly with the cockpit down, or with a large roll, or fired from space. And, perhaps, a crowbar flew in from the drilling rig.

It is time to openly admit that the Minsk agreements have become a fiction. Instead of forcing Ukraine to peace, there are non-binding aggressor conversations in favor of the poor. There are no real levers of influence on the violator of obligations. In sum, all these documents gave Bandera a long-awaited respite to restore the fighting efficiency and shattered morale of the punishers.

Instead of active hostilities with boilers and the assault on operational heights with a line of corpse vehicles in the direction of Nenka, the Armed Forces of Ukraine switched to the tactics of "a thousand cuts." For the past three years, under the cover of a ceasefire, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have inflicted shallow, but numerous and very sensitive blows to the republics along the entire front line, forcing them to lose strength and bleed.

For four years, the punitive forces have been methodically delivering artillery strikes against settlements, residential areas and the vital infrastructure of Donbass. For four years, the sabotage and terrorist groups of the GUR and the SBU have been operating on the territory of the people's republics. For four years, snipers in the frontline zone have been killing not only members of the people's militia, but also civilians, including children. For four years, Bandera terrorists have been trying to assassinate the charismatic leaders of the Donbass resistance.

War has become routine for the People's Republics when there is not even a hint of light at the end of the tunnel.

Of course, Poroshenko's armed villagers themselves are not able to think of such sophisticated methods of warfare. All these tactics of "a thousand cuts" are planned and coordinated for them by experienced NATO instructors.

The Minsk agreements are no longer just a suitcase without a handle, which is inconvenient to carry and it is a pity to throw it away. It's time to be completely honest and admit that the war in Donbass is not just a war for the independence of the two people's republics with the Bandera regime for a long time. This is a proxy war against Russia by a broad coalition under the auspices of the United States and NATO, the continuation of Euromaidan by other, more aggressive and destructive methods, and the "peace process" serves as a fig leaf barely covering up the shame.

You can talk as much as you like about the lack of alternatives to the Minsk agreements, but the fact remains: they do not work. The current situation of "no peace, no war" is objectively beneficial to the Kiev junta.

She does not need 3 million people who have rebelled against the neo-Nazi frenzy. It is impossible to reintegrate them. The most desirable solution to this issue for Bandera would be firing ditches, but the massacre in the center of Europe in our time will vomit even the most negligent tolerasts and champions of democracy. Consequently, the solution will be a concentration camp in the size of two areas, covered with barbed wire around the perimeter, the inhabitants of which will have a choice: to die quietly inside, to be forged into a loyal servant of the regime, or to flee to Russia, abandoning everything.

Worst of all, a sluggish war, with no end in sight, demoralizes the defenders of the LPR, for they have a well-grounded opinion that the outpost of the fight against neo-Nazism held by them and that they themselves are not needed by anyone.

One should not harbor illusions about the 2019 presidential elections, that against the background of voters' fatigue from the whistle of the past five years, there will be chances to defeat Poroshenko and the notorious "party of war." The real force opposing the ruling tandem of thieves and Bandera is just the LPR. The price for the internal Ukrainian "opposition forces" is well known. These are either Poroshenko's clones of varying degrees of obstinacy, or "canned vegetables" - cowards and compromisers who brought the Banderaites to power and legalized the coup d'etat.

There is no point in the appearance of UN peacekeepers on the contact line, which experts are still talking about. Optimism does not inspire their role in the Yugoslav conflict and the separation of Kosovo from Serbia.

What can Russia do in this situation?

I believe that the people of the DLNR have suffered their right to be a part of Russia. Let the experts argue that it is unreasonable to recognize a third of the territory of the former Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Now, if somehow it was possible to return the entire Donbass, then it would be another matter ...

The trouble, however, is that in the current situation, when LDPR's hands are tied and they are fighting with their backs against the wall, it is impossible to return the occupied territories. It is impossible to achieve anything in a passive way. New, non-standard solutions are needed. True, for their implementation it will be necessary to sacrifice the worthless Minsk agreements and the Normandy format.

For example, make a strong-willed decision and include the territories east of the front line in Russia. At the same time, without clearly defining the borders, with a hint that they will be moved to the west at any time. Ukraine itself gives Russia cards in hand, refusing to extend the Treaty of Friendship, and adopting such odious documents as the law "On Reintegration and De-occupation", which directly contradicts the letter and spirit of the Minsk Agreements.

It is very important to state the goals correctly. The return of the occupied territories of the LPR is a minimum task. The maximum task is to reach the "Curzon line", along which the border of the Russian lands passes. In any case, it will be much more productive than waiting for the weather by the sea in an embrace with a worthless piece of paper.

A calm peaceful life and construction in the Russian part of Donbass, as Crimea attracts many Ukrainians after reunification, can play a role in the return of territories to the west of the front line.

In general, after Crimea, it's time to get used to the idea that Donbass is our land, and our people live there, who are methodically killed and trying to drive them into the Stone Age. Russia still cannot avoid Western sanctions, pressure, and defamation in the media. So isn't it better to get them for an act, and not for a humble expectation that everything will somehow work out?

Ukrainian troops in the interval between March and June may launch a large-scale offensive in the Donbass. This was announced on Monday, February 5, by the deputy commander of the DPR operational command. Eduard Basurin.

He said that recently, local residents of the territories controlled by Kiev have reported massive movements of equipment and heavy weapons of the security forces to the line of contact, in addition, this is confirmed by the intelligence of the republic.

“These facts of building up forces and means of the enemy's grouping indicate that the Ukrainian side, contrary to the Minsk agreements, is actively preparing for offensive actions along the entire line of contact,” Basurin said.

According to him, the aim of the offensive is to block the DPR and LPR and take control of the border with Russia, another blow will be delivered in the south of the republic. The operation can begin on the eve of the presidential elections in the Russian Federation or in time for the holding of the football championship in Russia.

“The timing of the offensive by the Ukrainian strategists was not chosen by chance, and is connected, first of all, as we assume, with the fact that the main attention of the world community during this period will be directed to the election of the President of the Russian Federation and the holding of the World Cup in Russia,” Basurin is sure.

“I would like to note that the blitzkrieg planned by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not bring the expected result to the Ukrainian side, and in the event of armed aggression against the People's Republics, irreparable damage will be inflicted on the enemy,” he added. In addition, Basurin stressed that it is planned to prepare an appeal to the OSCE and the world community on this topic.

- Every year by the spring, the Ukrainian side demonstrates revival to a greater or lesser extent, - notes editor-in-chief of FORUM. Moscow time Anatoly Baranov.

- And every spring they are better and better prepared, not only the concentration of manpower and equipment is going on, but also the training is growing, the technical equipment is improving. If from the opposite side there is no such quantitative and qualitative strengthening, then sooner or later the quantity will grow into quality, and they will break through the front. It must be understood that the numerical superiority of the Ukrainian side is predetermined. And the question is, how long will the republics be able to maintain a qualitative advantage, if foreign instructors are already working with the Armed Forces of Ukraine on a permanent basis, the re-equipment of the Ukrainian troops is underway. Including with the help of NATO. And then even the ancients said that you cannot fight one enemy for more than five years - then he begins to fight like you.

"SP": - According to Basurin, the offensive operation of the security forces will be aimed at blocking the LPR and DPR and taking control of the border with the Russian Federation. Attacks are expected in the southern direction and in the direction of the LPR. How likely is this scenario? They seemed to have already tried to do the same in 2014 ...

- Some strategic uniformity is dictated by the disposition itself. It is necessary to break through the front with numerically superior forces and complete the defeat of the retreating enemy. The direction in the area of ​​Alchevsk and Debaltsevo, at the junction of the two republics, is a natural weak point. A blow to the south is a distraction. Such is the disposition from the textbook.

In 2014, this practically succeeded, the situation was saved by the counterstrike of the reserve, the presence of which the Ukrainian side did not expect, and the actual low combat readiness of the Ukrainian forces - in the situation of the offensive, the battle formations were upset, the control of the troops was lost, plus a low moral and political spirit - everything worked out and led to a stampede at the first serious blow. I think that the Ukrainian side will not repeat this mistake any more, they are much better prepared today.

"SP": - How would you assess the specified time frame (presidential elections in the Russian Federation and the holding of the football championship in Russia). How convenient is this period for an offensive? Is it an election or a championship? Three months difference ...

- I do not think that the Ukrainian troops are still ready to attack in the conditions of the spring thaw. But for this to work in the elections, the offensive must begin literally in a month. And what are the trump cards of the Ukrainian side in early March? Yes, in general, none.

The football championship is preferable - the eyes of the whole world will be riveted here, and serious battles 100 kilometers from the championship games, when the cannonade blocks the howling of the stands on the left bank of the Don ... shells on the Russian side with the death of people, as in 2014 ... And columns of military equipment along all routes. I would not write off the possibility of such a show.

"SP": -Do you think Moscow is considering a similar scenario?

- I think the General Staff should consider any scenarios. This is their job. And what is being planned there in the presidential administration, I do not know.

"SP": - Basurin noted that it is planned to prepare an appeal to the OSCE and the world community on this topic. Will it give something? Why shake the air?

- Probably, Basurin still knows what he says. Conversion is likely to have some consequences. Even for sure. But what are the consequences - I do not know. I hope those who prepare it know.

- From some sources it is known that the Armed Forces of Ukraine forms strike groups, concentrating them both at the front and in the immediate vicinity of the border, - confirms military commander Marina Kharkov.

- The Ukrainian command began to deal with this somewhere in November and does not stop the process. It is also known that the number of flights of Ukrainian transporters with cargoes intended for supplying the Armed Forces of Ukraine has increased. The goals and objectives of the Ukrainian side have not changed: these are military actions and terror against the republics. Terror in every sense: elimination of commanders, economic, political, psychological and even communication terror. In the DPR, where I live, for two months already, the connection of the Ukrainian mobile operator Vodafone-MTS Ukraine has been completely disconnected. And this is also one of the elements of the war. That is, by putting together the available information, the mechanisms leading to a possible serious new round of active hostilities become clear. Donetsk and Luhansk people have been living in constant expectation of a big war for four years soon, because not a single step of Ukraine over these years has been either humane, or peaceful, or compromise in the broad sense of this concept, because it is ridiculous to consider micro concessions under pressure as a compromise. And the Minsk agreements were used exclusively as a screen for new aggressive steps, re-equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard, reformatting them from a fragmented, inexperienced and battered in three boilers army of the 14th model into a combat-ready, experienced army of contract soldiers and ideological nationalists. Moreover, this army has aviation, in spite of the cries of hurray propagandists that “it all fell in Slavyansk,” and the remnants of the fleet, which by no means “rusted all over in the port of Berdyansk,” and armored vehicles, and numerous re-bases, and supplies of foreign weapons. production, ammunition, UAVs, sniper weapons, electronic security equipment, communications equipment, up to dry rations, uniforms, equipment. All of this is not a vehicle for peaceful negotiations. This is already killing Donbass and will continue to kill him.

"SP": - So Basurin says that the facts of building up the forces and means of the enemy's grouping indicate that the Ukrainian side, contrary to the Minsk agreements, is actively preparing for offensive actions along the entire line of contact. But the buildup of enemy forces is observed from the very "Minsk". Until it came to a full-scale war ...

- Indeed, it never came to full-scale actions, as in the 14th. However, the enemy did not waste time for nothing - he profited from it and turned to his advantage in order to mobilize forces and resources. Ukraine does not hide its intention to carry out something similar to Operation Oluya, when the Republic of Serbian Krajina was destroyed. And the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Alexander Turchinov He directly called the destruction of the Serbian Krajina by the Croatian army an example, in accordance with which Ukraine should act. "So the desire and strength of the Ukrainian enemy to attack the Donetsk and Lugansk republics are unambiguous.

As for the plans to split the republics from each other and cut them off from the border, they are clear even to people who are little familiar with military tactics and strategy: you just need to look at the map, where the territories of the republics are close to the borders of Russia, like chicks to an eagle. And the southern direction of the Donetsk front is vulnerable due to its remoteness from the center, highways and openness from the sea. If we talk about the readiness to repel the full-scale aggression of Ukraine, then we must face the truth. Many kilometers of the front are held by a minimum number of people. The republics do not have their own aviation and navy. The count will go not for days, but for hours, if we are left alone. However, our armies will not surrender, panic or have defeatist sentiments. The fighters and officers of the republics will accept the battle, because almost four years of war have deprived them of their illusions. And there is nowhere to retreat: cities stand close to the front and people live. Many people told me in a private conversation that “let it start already, at least we will break the enemy for everything, for all ours. Anything is better than just waiting and snapping. "

Now, near Donetsk, the enemy is actively conducting reconnaissance with the help of drones, and with the help of DRGs, and with the help of shelling, revealing where the positions have moved, what is the sector of return fire, what is the fire support and where are the weak points, where there is poor communication at the junctions of responsibility different brigades or units. Armed Forces of Ukraine continue shelling the residential sector in the Donetsk, Horlivka and Dokuchaevka directions, and the Svetodar arc. In the LPR, the situation is similar to ours. And according to the situation, and according to the forces. Recent artillery attacks were carried out on Pervomaisk, Kirovsk, Kalinovo, Logvinovo, and other cities and towns.

"SP": - How would you assess the specified time frame (presidential elections in the Russian Federation and the holding of the football championship in Russia)? How convenient is this period for an offensive?

- As for the time frame, today I heard an interesting opinion of our serviceman: “Everyone is waiting for the Olympics, or the presidential elections in the Russian Federation, or the World Championship, tying attacks and provocations to these dates. In fact, the enemy can take advantage of predictable expectations and strike much earlier or in the interval between the predicted dates when our side will relax. This is what we are afraid of, not obvious dates. " Personally, I think that on these days the situation will inevitably worsen - either due to shelling or attempts by several local breakthroughs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. No one can guess or name the day and hour of the attacks, since then he would be a military genius.

"SP": -Under what pretext can the offensive begin? What kind of provocations should you be afraid of?

- Ukraine does not need to invent pretexts for war, the existence of uncontrolled republics is in itself a pretext. However, the fact that the main focus is on the destabilization of the situation inside us is quite clear. What will it be? Massive shelling, terrorist attacks on infrastructure facilities? All together and at the same time? I don't even want to think about it. We have been living in the war for four years. We are losing people every day. Someone dies. Someone dies, not withstanding the psychological stress. Someone is leaving forever. There is no clearance. There is no junction. There is no development. I will not sign for everyone, but we want victory over nationally embittered warriors and marauders in NATO camouflage who are concerned only with personal gain. This is our land and, I repeat, there is nowhere else to retreat.

The United States began to move its troops from Belgium to Eastern Europe. This was announced on May 23 by the Defense News portal. The transfer is being carried out as part of Operation Atlantic Resolve, a rehearsal in case of a military conflict on the continent. Previously, armored vehicles from the Texas-based 1st Tank Brigade were delivered to Antwerp by ships.

In total, the Americans are deploying 3.3 thousand personnel and 650 units of military equipment. These include, in particular, M-1 Abrams tanks and M-109 Paladin self-propelled artillery mounts. The equipment will be sent to the Baltic countries, as well as to Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and Hungary. Later, the group will take part in the Saber Strike exercises in Poland and the Baltic States - 18,000 troops from NATO countries are involved in them.

The date of Saber Strike is noteworthy here - from June 3 to June 15. Just during this period, the start of the FIFA World Cup in Russia, which is scheduled for June 14, falls. And just at the opening of the World Cup, the Ukrainian army can launch a large-scale attack on Donbass.

A captured soldier of the Armed Forces of Ukraine spoke about the planned offensive, in particular, on May 23 at a briefing in the DPR Vasily Zhimilinsky... “We were told that the offensive would begin either on the eve of the presidential elections in Russia, as the snow melts and the earth dries up, or for the World Cup. All this was discussed, they even said that there was an order and it was all a matter of time, ”he said.

The soldier noted that the Ukrainian troops began to receive more ammunition and fuels and lubricants. In addition, the soldiers were promised that the Javelin ATGM would be handed over to the advanced units. Another Ukrainian prisoner, speaking to reporters, said that artillery systems were deployed on the front line of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Experts are also convinced that Kiev will not miss this convenient moment for revenge. First, everything is technically ready for the defeat of the people's republics. The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is several times greater than Lugansk, and to a slightly lesser extent - Donetsk: today Ukraine can throw up to 1000 tanks and up to 1000 artillery barrels on the offensive. Secondly, and this is the main thing, Moscow will have its hands tied for the duration of the championship.

This means that "little green men" are unlikely to appear in the DPR and LPR. Otherwise, the World Cup will fail miserably - the Western countries, presumably, will withdraw their teams. For the Kremlin, this scenario is absolutely unacceptable. Instead of a triumphant demonstration that Russia is not in international isolation, a political vacuum will emerge around our country, with all the ensuing consequences for Moscow.

We add that the timing of hostilities to a world-class sporting event is a proven recipe in the CIS. In 2008, Georgia subjected the capital of South Ossetia to massive shelling, marking the beginning of the Five-Day War, on August 8, the opening day of the Olympic Games in Beijing. And the coup d'état of 2014 in Kiev, with the bloody massacre at Euromaidan, took place during the Winter Olympics in Sochi. And in both cases, we will note that the actions of the attackers were directed from the United States.

If we accept the version that this scenario will repeat itself in Donbass, the appearance of the American contingent with M-1 Abrams and M-109 Paladin in Eastern Europe can be considered a warning to the Kremlin. In case the Russian authorities are tempted to act in the Donbass according to the Syrian option. That is, to promptly recognize the independence of the people's republics, immediately sign agreements with the leadership of the DPR and LPR on the provision of military-technical assistance, and immediately move Russian troops into the Donbass.

What is behind the Saber Strike maneuvers, how will the situation in Donbass develop?

Sooner or later, the conflict between Russia and Bandera Ukraine is inevitable, I am convinced former deputy of the State Duma (third and fourth convocations) Viktor Alksnis... - Kiev understands very well that it cannot stand alone against Moscow. But he also understands that the United States will always support Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia.

Let me note that the idea that Ukraine should be "independent", should end its dependence on Russia, did not appear yesterday - it is already several centuries old. All these centuries, attempts have been made to create an independent Ukrainian state and Ukrainian nation. But only over the past 25 years this nation has finally formed, and a new generation has appeared, which is ready to fight for its interests - first of all, with Russia.

All this, I believe, we need to perceive as a bitter reality.

Another question is that Russia itself is to blame for this, which for 25 years did not deal with Ukraine and saw in it an exclusively transit territory. The same Viktor Chernomyrdin In my opinion, he was not so much the ambassador of the Russian Federation in Ukraine as the ambassador of Gazprom. Its task was not to create and support pro-Russian forces, but to advance the interests of the Russian gas concern.

As a result of this approach, the once fraternal Ukraine has become a springboard for aggressive actions against the Russian Federation. And it is impossible for us to agree on anything with such a Ukraine.

From the point of view of today's Kiev and its puppeteers from the United States, Russia must unquestioningly retreat. I must surrender Donbass, Crimea, plus vow to forever abandon attempts to defend national interests in relations with Ukraine.

"SP": - Can the Armed Forces move to Donbass, using to cover the FIFA World Cup?

I think that given a favorable coincidence for Kiev, it may well start hostilities in the Donbass. The trouble is that in the spring of 2014 we missed that only unique chance - to resolve the Ukrainian issue for centuries.

Then the Kremlin had a historic chance - to participate in the creation of Ukraine 2.0. Legally elected Ukrainian president was on Russian territory Victor Yanukovich who turned to Moscow for help. And in the east and southeast of Ukraine, there were massive demonstrations - hundreds of thousands of people wanted to be with Russia, and even within the Russian Federation. Plus, at that moment Ukraine did not have an efficient army - the events in Crimea clearly demonstrated this.

If in the spring of 2014 the Kremlin and personally the president Vladimir Putin would show political will, we would now have two Ukraine. One Bandera, which is in hostile relations with Russia, and the pro-Russian Ukraine 2.0 - from Kharkov to Odessa. We would cut off Bandera's Ukraine from the Black Sea and seriously complicate its geopolitical situation. The West would be placed in the same position as it was with North and South Vietnam, or now with North and South Korea. And for us the situation with Ukraine 1.0 and Ukraine 2.0 would be geopolitically extremely beneficial.

But in the spring of 2014 we did not dare to take decisive action. The OSCE Chairman-in-Office, the President of Switzerland, arrived in Moscow then. Didier Burkhalter, and managed to give the Russian president some arguments that did not allow the Russian head of state to make fateful decisions on Ukraine.

Therefore, today Ukraine will provoke Russia and will be ready to launch an attack on Donbass. No matter how the Kremlin swaggers, the sanctions have an impact on the domestic political situation in the Russian Federation and its economy. Therefore, Kiev expects that Russia, which has repeatedly demonstrated weakness and unwillingness to radically solve problems, will once again remain silent. For example, justifying herself by the fact that she is holding the World Cup, and she cannot overshadow this most important sports festival by participating in the conflict in Donbass.

And we will hand over Donbass.

"SP": - Will Putin go to provide assistance to Donbass in a critical situation?

I do not know. I cannot rule out that in this case, an assistant to the president will appear Vladislav Surkov, and will declare a great victory for Russian diplomacy, which managed to find a solution that satisfied Donbass. And simply - handed over those four million people who wanted to be with Russia.

I will note that now many of these people are expressing serious claims to Moscow. And quite rightly so. We have put them in inhuman conditions of blockade and shelling, and we are doing nothing to stop this.

"SP": - If the Armed Forces of Ukraine begin to attack, and the Kremlin does not interfere, how quickly will Donbass fall?

I think this is a question of several days, or even several hours. In four years, Ukraine, with the help of Western curators, managed to actually re-create the army. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have been actively improving all this time and conducting combat training. As a result, the Ukrainian army in 2018 is fundamentally different from the army in 2014.

Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in my opinion, represent a serious military force. And the mood that we will throw hats at the Ukrainian army are inappropriate. Let me remind you that in 1905 we wanted to throw our hats over Japan, and this ended with Tsushima.

I repeat: today the Ukrainian army is a serious adversary, whose combat potential seriously surpasses everything that the republics of Donbass have. It is an army that even the Russian Armed Forces will have a hard time coping with. The Armed Forces of Ukraine went through not only reforms - the army allowed hundreds of thousands of its servicemen to pass through the Donbass to gain combat experience. So, I think there will be no more “boilers” that we observed in 2014-2015.

You have to understand: if it nevertheless comes to a direct clash with the Ukrainian army, serious losses on the Russian side are inevitable. I think Putin is seriously afraid of such a scenario - then “cargo 200” will go to Russian cities and villages. And these will not be isolated losses, and not even dozens of people - thousands of our servicemen will die. Their lives, in fact, will have to be laid for the fact that in 2014 the Russian authorities showed, to put it mildly, weakness.

Kiev during the World Cup, rather, will adhere to the same tactics in the Donbass - to conduct local clashes, shelling, maintain instability on the line of contact, - said Alexander Shatilov, Dean of the Faculty of Sociology and Political Science of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. - It's just that all these actions will be in a tougher version. From the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, breakthroughs of the defense line of the DPR and LPR, attacks on the lines of communication, the seizure of settlements in the gray zone of conflict are possible.

Ukraine is already behaving quite defiantly, taking advantage of the fact that Russia does not want to waste time on trifles, and keeps the Donbass militia from major counterplay. As a result, Ukraine, although not going to invade Donbass, will try to capture as many promising positions as possible and keep the situation in limbo.

The option of a massive attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Donbass is possible only if Washington decides to start a big game. In this situation, Russia, as a guarantor of stability, has the right to use its Armed Forces in Donbass, as it was in Crimea in 2014. In this case, the Ukrainian army has no chance - it will be defeated.

This could be a reason for US troops to enter Ukraine as deep as possible under the pretext of defending a post-Soviet country. In this case, the split of the "independent" into pro-Russian and pro-American parts will become a reality.