Personal evaluation opinion of Valery Sivokon

Often the beginning of the year becomes a moment of large-scale state changes. Most often this is due to the fact that various legal acts regulating certain changes in the state itself come into force. It is they who cause changes in the prices of goods and services. It is worth considering what will rise in price from January 1, 2019 in the Russian Federation and what the Russians should prepare for.

Reasons for price increases

The rise in price of some groups of goods is inevitable. This fact is due to the fact that from January 1, 2019, the Law on Increasing the Value Added Tax (VAT) comes into force.

If in 2018 VAT was 18%, then starting from January 1, 2019 it will be 20%. Accordingly, the tax will increase by 2%.

Therefore, price increases are a highly expected and inevitable phenomenon for all Russians, since value added tax is included in the cost of a product at the stages of its production, transportation and final sale.

The second possible reason for the increase in prices is the indexation of wages of Russians and the increase in pensions. Many entrepreneurs, knowing this fact, can slightly increase the cost of their goods and services in order to increase their income. Inflation could also be another reason for the rise in prices.

List of goods that will rise in price

The increase in prices will affect a large number of product groups and services. E Experts from many areas make assumptions about how much the following groups of goods can rise in price:

1. Medicines. An increase in the cost of medicines produced in Russia (up to 10%), as well as imported ones (up to 15%) is expected.
2. Bread and flour products. From January 1, prices for bread and flour products may increase from 5 to 20%.
3. Petrol. There is a possibility that in 2019 gasoline prices may rise by up to 5 rubles.
4. Train tickets. Tickets for travel in railway transport can rise in price up to 4%.
5. Food. We should expect food prices to rise by up to 5%. First of all, milk, sugar, flour, eggs and meat may rise in price.
6. Mobile connection. In connection with the abolition of roaming on the territory of Russia, telecom operators incur some losses, so communication costs are expected to rise by up to 5%.
7. Cars. On average, prices for foreign cars can rise up to 8%, and for the domestic auto industry - up to 3%.
8. Housing and communal services. Since a resolution was signed in 2018 to increase tariffs for housing and communal services, an increase of 1.7% is expected in the first half of the year, and 2.4% in the second.
9. Household appliances and electronics. Smartphones and TV equipment may rise in price. Prices are expected to rise by 3 to 10%.

Residents of the Moscow region in 2018 are waiting for the traditional increase in tariffs for housing and communal services and public transport. The cost of travel in public transport in Moscow will increase from January 1, 2018, in the Moscow region - from January 2, but beneficiaries of Moscow region will receive free travel in the capital, and travel in electric trains of the Moscow hub will not rise at all. Utility tariffs, as usual, are planned to be increased from July 1, 2018, and in the first half of the year they will remain at the level of 2017. Also from the New Year will increase the tax on real estate and fines for car owners.

Moscow

Passengers of the Moscow metro and surface public transport in Moscow will pay more from January 2, 2018.

So, a one-time trip to the metro using the Troika card will rise in price by 1 ruble to 36 rubles, compared with the current tariff.

The cost of a “Single” ticket for 60 trips will be 1,765 thousand rubles instead of 1,700 rubles in 2017, and an unlimited pass for all public transport in the capital for 30 days will cost 2,075 thousand rubles against the current 2 thousand rubles.

At the same time, the cost of a trip on a single ticket "Single" will not change and will remain at the level of 55 rubles for 1 trip and 110 rubles for two.

From March 1, 2018, residents and interns will receive preferential travel cards in Moscow. The cost of a monthly trip in the metro for them will be 380 rubles, in land transport - 250, as for a student travel card.

Moscow region

The increase in fares for public transport in the Moscow region in 2018 will not exceed the projected inflation rate of 4%, this increase is the smallest in the last four years.

From January 1, 2018, a single bus ticket will rise in price by 2 rubles - up to 48 rubles per trip.
A city trip on the Strelka card for a distance of up to 5 kilometers will rise in price from 31.65 rubles to 32.92 rubles (up to 10 trips).

Trips from the 11th to the 20th on Strelka will cost 30.62 rubles, from the 21st to the 30th trip the passenger will pay 28.31 rubles.

In total, there are 198 different cost options, which are formed due to the distance and the number of trips made. In general, the increase in the price of a trip in Moscow Region transport will vary from 1 to 4 rubles, depending on the tariff.

Preferential travel for residents of the Moscow region

From January 1, 2018, a "preferential law" comes into force in the Moscow Region, according to which more than 850 thousand residents of the Moscow Region will be able to travel by public transport in Moscow for free.

The right to free travel is granted indefinitely to a number of preferential categories of citizens on automobile, ground electric urban transport and in the subway.

According to the law approved by the Moscow Regional Duma, 20 categories of citizens of the Moscow region will receive the right to travel free of charge in Moscow, including: disabled veterans of the Second World War and military operations, participants in the Second World War, disabled people of groups I, II, III, disabled children under the age of 18 and some others.

Trains

The fare on electric trains in Moscow and the Moscow region in 2018 will not change. Tariff revision is planned only in 2019.

The last time the fares for commuter trains were increased on July 1, 2017: in Moscow - by two rubles, in the Moscow region - by 1.5 rubles per zone. Now passengers pay 34 rubles for a trip through the territory of "old" Moscow, and 22 rubles in the Moscow region within one zone.

According to the Central Suburban Passenger Company (CPPK), during the holidays, from December 28 to January 9, fares for travel in high comfort suburban trains with the provision of seats will change.

This will affect trains running on the routes Moscow - Alexandrov, Moscow - Vladimir, Moscow - Kaluga, Moscow - Ryazan, Moscow - Dubna, Moscow - Tula.

Property tax

From January 1, 2018, owners of apartments and houses in Moscow and the Moscow region will have to pay a higher property tax due to tax reform and a gradual increase in the cadastral value of housing.

In the Moscow region, a property up to 10 million rubles will be taxed at a rate of 0.1%. If the cost of the apartment is higher - up to 20 million rubles, the rate increases to 0.15%.

Apartments up to 20 square meters, rooms up to 10 square meters and private housing up to 50 square meters are not taxed.

Patents for foreigners

In 2018, the cost of a labor patent for foreign workers will increase. In the capital, its cost will increase from 4.2 thousand to 4.5 thousand rubles, and in the Moscow region - from 4 thousand rubles to 4.3 thousand rubles.

In the Moscow region, the rise in price will be 7.5%.

Housing and communal services tariffs

In the Moscow region, the average increase in prices for housing and communal services will not exceed 6.1%, such a maximum index was approved by the authorities of the region on November 29. Specific rates for the cost of certain services have not yet been approved.

In the capital, the growth of housing and communal services tariffs will average 5.5%, which is less than in 2017, when housing and communal services in Moscow rose by 7%.

In particular, it is assumed that the cost of one kilowatt-hour at a one-part tariff in Moscow will not change and will remain at the level of 5.38 rubles. In the tariff, differentiated by two and three zones of the day, the cost of a kilowatt / hour at night will increase from 1.79 to 1.92 rubles. You will have to pay more for electricity in houses with electric stoves.

It is planned that with a one-part tariff, the cost of a kilowatt-hour will increase from 4.04 to 4.30 rubles. In a differentiated tariff for two zones of the day, the cost of a daily kilowatt / hour will increase from 4.65 to 4.95 rubles and a night one - from 1.26 to 1.35 rubles.

With a three-part tariff, a kilowatt / hour will also rise in price at peak time - from 4.85 to 5.16 rubles, in the semi-peak period the price will rise from 4.04 to 4.30 rubles, at night - from 1.26 to 1.35 rubles .

Petrol

Motorists in the New 2018 should prepare for a rise in gasoline prices. This is due to a double increase in excise taxes on fuel - from January 1 and July 1, 2018. According to experts, in January, gasoline will rise in price by about 50 kopecks and by the same amount in July.

Also in January, fines for excessive tinting of car windows will triple. If the light transmission of the windshield is below 75%, and the side window is below 70%, the initial fine will be 1.5 thousand rubles, and the second one - 5 thousand rubles.

Samolet has prepared for its readers an overview of the main cost changes that await them from the very beginning of the coming “pig” year. The gradual rise in price of most groups of goods and various services is ongoing, but sometimes the rate of price increase is very moderate, and sometimes they change abruptly.

send

First, about the main reasons for the recent and future price hikes. Of course, in the first place is the increase from the first day of the new year in value added tax (VAT) by 2% - from 18 to 20%. This increase affected almost all commodity groups and service sectors. It was both a heavy blow to businesses forced to either raise prices at the risk of losing customers or sacrifice margins to keep customers, and a good reason to justify a price increase for those who had long intended to do so.

In addition, the rise in prices is affected by the indexation of wages and pension payments; the ratio of the Russian ruble and the dollar; the general inflation rate in the country.

Ruble, euro, dollar

Speaking of exchange rates. The exchange rate of the dollar and the euro against the ruble at the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange on Wednesday, January 9, increased compared to the closing rate of previous trading. In particular, the dollar exchange rate increased by 41 kopecks, to 67.3 rubles. The euro rose by 14 kopecks to 76.69 rubles.

The Moscow Exchange Index rose by 0.34% and amounted to 2397.76 points. The RTS index also shows growth: it rose by 0.57% to 1129.32 points.

Alcoholic drinks and tobacco products

At the initiative of the Ministry of Health, in 2018, a proposal was considered for the annual indexation of prices for tobacco products and spirits. The increase in the price of the excise tax on alcohol was to be 20%, and the increase in the price of the excise tax on cigarettes - 10%. At the moment, the Ministry of Finance has rejected this proposal, but it was decided to return to it and reach a compromise solution after a review before the start of 2019.

Russian manufacturers of tobacco products have expressed support for the introduction of mandatory certification, as they believe that this guarantees the buyer the purchase of a quality product and increases the flow of funds to the budget in the form of taxes.

Fuel

Prices at gas stations after the New Year holidays win back the increase in VAT. But not only. From January 1, 2019, the increase in the cost of fuel excises will come into force, which will be the third planned by this program. The first two occurred on January 1 and July 1, 2018, while the last one is scheduled for January 1, 2020. It is this factor that will cause a huge resonance in the pricing of many goods during the first months of 2019.

An increase in the cost of excise duty will lead to an increase in fuel prices from the first days of January to 10%, but after the first surge, the cost will be set at a value of 7-7.5% more than at the end of 2018. All traders and manufacturers of fuel products without exception are familiar with this requirement.

Mikhail Turukalov of Commodity Markets Analyst does not expect a significant increase in wholesale gasoline prices in the near future, as record volumes were sold on the exchange in December, and a premium was established due to lower oil prices in the domestic market. But the expert does not rule out that the oil companies will try to increase the prices of gas stations, citing the increase in VAT and inflation. Exchange prices may begin to rise closer to spring due to a jump in excise taxes, but with the help of a damper, the government will try to contain the rise in prices, Mr. Turukalov notes.

Transport services

In connection with the previous paragraph, from January 1, the services of carriers of goods and all cargo carriers will rise in price. In turn, sooner or later, state-owned companies that are engaged in passenger or freight transportation and the delivery of goods will also rise in price.

As far as possible, the state will try to contain this growth, but for the average Russian, buying tickets for travel and travel in public transport will become a more costly part of the budget.

Auto and related products

A 2% increase in the tax will lead to a rise in the price of cars, spare parts and all types of services in 2019. Readiness for this was expressed by all manufacturers of automotive products that are engaged in domestic sales and exports.

Even before the New Year, automakers and dealers promised a price increase of at least 2% due to the increase in VAT. And they kept their word with overfulfillment. Dealers raised prices by 2%, automakers themselves added another 2.5-3% - throwing on inflation and more than expected weakening of the ruble.

Some experts predict that this will reduce sales of the domestic auto industry in favor of imported cars, but large concerns say they will make a number of attempts to resolve this issue through various promotions and special offers.

Housing and communal services

Over the past years, the price tags on receipts have steadily increased in the first month of the year. Experts believe that this situation will repeat itself in 2019. State structures seek to adjust prices for utilities in accordance with the level of inflation, but it is the cost of housing and communal services that most often outstrips the growth of other goods and services in the first place.

Garbage

From the first day of the new year, a reform of the waste management sphere has started in the country. Samolet will devote a separate review to its scandalous beginning today. In the meantime, we note that the service for the removal of municipal solid waste (MSW) is becoming mandatory, that is, it will no longer be possible to refuse it, for example, to take out your garbage on your own. Will cover everyone! Moreover, if earlier it was a housing service, and its cost was determined on contractual terms between the consumer and the contractor, now a rigid tariff will be set depending on the coverage area of ​​the regional operator. In the Vologda Oblast, this is 140 rubles per person per month. It will be calculated from the number of residents, and not from square meters.

It should be noted that if earlier firms involved in garbage collection were on a simplified taxation scheme, then from January 1, 2019, regional operators become VAT payers. Accordingly, 20% of the cost of the service is laid down for this.

In addition, a completely new component appears. Starting from the New Year, all citizens will also be required to pay for the negative impact on the environment through the garbage collection tariff. Previously, this fee was collected only from enterprises, and now it is also from the population.

Food

From January 1, 2019, due to a rise in fuel prices, a new round of price increases for the main product groups is expected. First of all, this will affect the retail price of bread and bakery products, confectionery, the entire range of dairy products, sugar, cattle meat, pork and poultry.

In a few weeks, this will entail pulling up the prices on the price tags of most other food products by 1-2%. The increase will peak in January-March, after which prices should stabilize before the end of the year.

Restaurant services

Changes in food products will invariably affect the services of the restaurant business. If a cafe or restaurant does not increase the cost of its services, this will inevitably lead to unprofitability.

How expensive the pleasure of eating in cafes and restaurants for ordinary Russians will rise depends on the actions of suppliers and on the behavior of competitors who can dump services, finding hidden reserves at first.

Goods in plastic packaging

From January 1, the price of all products packaged in plastic is expected to rise. The reason for this was the environmental fee introduced everywhere in Russia. Prices for frozen vegetables and fruits, drinks and water, cut sausages and cheese, draft beer, and packaged dairy products will change. Manufacturers will be forced to pay an eco-fee, which will ultimately lead to a rise in the price of all products packaged in plastic.

Mandatory marking

At the moment, the government has already approved the final list of goods that are subject to labeling. A direct consequence of this will be that they will rise in price from the beginning of the year. Until 2019, this practice applied only to raw materials in the fur industry, which since 2016 are subject to mandatory certification, which caused a rise in price by 30-45% in the first months after the innovation. This is a standard mechanism for a market economy, which will also manifest itself in 2019.

The following groups of goods will be legally available for sale only after the necessary labeling in 2019 at the following times:

products of the photo industry - cameras, external and stationary flashes, photo lamps - from December 1.

Marking will entail an immediate rise in the price of all the above groups of goods, but will partially solve the problem of counterfeit goods, which will generally have a positive effect on the country's economy.

From the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2020, a similar labeling system for medicines and drugs will also be introduced, which will cause them to rise in price.

What else could cost more?

Cellular communications and the Internet due to the same increase in VAT and the cost of implementing the Yarovaya Law. Apartments - because of the new law on shared construction. Tours abroad - due to the fall of the ruble and changes in the policies of Turkish hotels. Abandoned a large number of previous discounts for Russian tour operators.

More on the topic

• One step forward, half a step back. The governor of the Vologda region is forced to respond to the dissatisfaction of the population with the start of the waste reform

The Rich Man's Club found out what prices could rise this year.

Anatoly Pack

know that the price will go up

Here's the main one.

Auto

New excise rates are already in effect for cars with a capacity of over 150 horsepower. Until 2018, the rate for 1 horsepower was 420 rubles.

It is still difficult to say how much car prices will rise, because excises often occupy a very small share in the final price of a product. In addition, these are not essential goods. Products without excises can rise in price even more.

Here are the new excise taxes on powerful cars.

Public transport

In Moscow, the fare has risen.

1. The Troika card is for a ruble, and now it costs 36 R.
2. Monthly unlimited - for 75 R and now costs 2075 R.
3. 60 trips have risen in price by 65 R and now cost 1765 R.

Petrol

When: in January and July.

The excise tax on fuel will increase by 50 kopecks per liter at the beginning of the year and by 50 kopecks in the summer. According to forecasts, gasoline will rise in price by 1.18 R per liter, and, for example, AI-92 will cost at least 40 R per liter. As it will be in reality - we do not know. Gasoline and without raising excises rises in price during the year.

Tobacco

Excises on tobacco products were raised by 10%.

For example, the excise tax on a pack of cigarettes increased by R3.12. For cigars - 17 R apiece. The excise tax on electronic cigarettes and vapes increased by 4R apiece. Again, it is impossible to predict how much the price of tobacco products will rise, because the excise tax does not play a major role in the final price of the product. A vape can be bought once for several years, and consumables for it are constantly needed. And they cost much more than a new excise tax.

In 2018, residents of the Moscow region are waiting for the traditional increase in prices for various goods and services.

Public transport

Gasoline will rise in price twice

According to the decision of the Government of the Russian Federation, excise taxes on gasoline in 2018 will increase twice: from January 1 and from July 1. Each time for 50 kopecks per liter. According to experts, a liter of gasoline AI-92 will rise in price from 37-38 rubles. up to 52 rubles per liter, and for AI-95 and diesel fuel from 41-42 to 53 rubles.

housing and communal services

Tariffs for "communal" will increase from July 1. According to the press service of the Committee on Prices and Tariffs of the Moscow Region, the average increase in tariffs for utilities in the Moscow region will not exceed 4%, and the maximum growth index of fees will be 6.1%.

This does not mean that tariff growth will be 4% or 6%. The maximum increase in tariffs in some municipalities may be significantly higher. So, in 2016, with an average growth index of the same 4%, the maximum increase in tariffs in the Moscow region was 10%. The last increase in housing and communal services tariffs at the moment occurred on July 1, 2017.

Patent for migrants

The cost of a labor patent for foreigners will increase by 7.5% due to the establishment of a new regional coefficient. As a result, the cost of the patent will be 4.3 thousand rubles.

There are a number of other goods and services that are expected to rise in price in Russia in 2018.

Food

Prices for imported products, including tea, coffee, cocoa and fruits, are expected to rise from January 1. Growth will also affect conventional products. According to preliminary forecasts, the average grocery basket next year will become about 30% more expensive compared to 2017.

Cigarettes

Starting July 1, the excise rate on cigarettes and cigarettes will be revised upwards. Experts predict a jump in prices for tobacco products by 10-12% in 2018. At the same time, cigarette prices will continue to rise in subsequent years due to an increase in the excise rate.

Cars

From January 1, a new differentiation of excise rates for cars with a capacity of 150 hp or more will come into effect. With. For cars with engine power from 150 to 200 hp. With. the excise tax will increase by 2.5-3.4 thousand rubles. For cars with a capacity of 201-300 liters. With. - for 59-88 thousand rubles, with a capacity of 301-400 liters. With. - for 240-319 thousand rubles, with a capacity of 401-500 liters. With. - 337-420 thousand rubles, with a capacity of more than 500 liters. With. - by 442 thousand rubles.

Also, the planned increase in the scrappage fee by 15% may affect the increase in selling prices for new cars. According to experts, these two factors will increase prices in the domestic car market by 10-15%, depending on the brand and model.

Increasing property tax

In the fall of 2018, apartment owners will receive payments where the amount of tax will again be higher than in the previous year. The tax for 2015 was calculated as 20% of the payment based on the cadastral value and 80% - from the inventory value, for 2016 - 40% of the cadastral value, then by the end of 2017 the proportion will be 60 to 40%.

The replacement of the inventory value with the cadastral value for tax purposes takes place gradually, over five years, until 2020. The inventory cost is calculated by the Bureau of Technical Inventory (BTI) on the basis of the primary cost, taking into account the degree of wear and tear of the living space. The cadastral value is as close as possible to the market value and is usually much higher than the inventory value of housing.

In some cases, the cadastral value of an apartment can be 5, 10 or even 15 times higher than the inventory value. If the cadastral value is five times higher than the inventory value, this will lead to an increase in tax for the year by 31%, and if the estimates differ ten times, then the tax will increase by 39%.

Imported medicines

The cost of imported drugs may rise by 10-15%. At the same time, medicines included in the list of vital ones will rise in price for the state by 30% .

The reason for the rise in prices may be the imperfection of the drug registry and the introduction of a public procurement system from Rostec. At the same time, the Federal Antimonopoly Service claims that prices for drugs from this list will remain at the same level.

Tax on online purchases

Now in foreign online stores you can buy duty-free goods worth up to 1,000 euros. However, already from July 1, 2018, with a high degree of probability, this figure will be 20 euros - a total of 1,300 rubles. Anything more expensive will have to pay a fee.

So far, this innovation has not been finally approved, as well as the introduction of VAT for foreign online stores, but it is actively lobbied by large Russian business associations and associations.

In particular, on December 25, 2017, the Association of Internet Trade Companies appealed to the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Dmitry MEDVEDEV with a request to expedite work on the legislative introduction of VAT and customs duties for foreign online stores.