When the euro falls. Signs that your relationship is serious. What affects the euro exchange rate in Russia

Forces Russians to keep funds in foreign currency and closely monitor its dynamics in the world market. After the events in the United States, more and more citizens are thinking about converting their savings into euros. What are analysts' opinions about the future of the currency, and what can change its rate?

In 2017, the euro may become a more profitable currency for keeping funds

What affects the euro exchange rate in Russia?

First, the events in the region of use. Until recently, Europe prided itself on relative economic stability. Britain's exit from the EU dealt a blow to its wealth and the position of the euro. The future of the monetary unit largely depends on how trade between Foggy Albion and mainland Europe develops over the next few years. So far, the prospects are unclear, so it is difficult to name the exact exchange rate of the euro.

Secondly, the position of the European currency depends on the position of the American one. If the dollar weakens, the euro strengthens, and vice versa. In the first days after the US elections, the national currency significantly lost ground. However, financiers see this as a market reaction to Trump's surprise victory (most investors were for Clinton), rather than the start of a long-term trend.

The Danish investment bank Saxo Bank, known for its accurate forecasts of economic events, assumes that by the end of 2016 the position of the American currency will strengthen again, but weaken in a year. Ukrainian economist Oleksandr Okhrimenko believes that the euro and dollar rates on the world market will equalize by the end of 2017.

Third, the current state of the Russian economy affects the value of foreign currencies. Domestic financiers hope that by the end of 2016 it will emerge from the recession (gradual but indefatigable recession). Western sanctions also play a leading role in this process. Until the cost of "black gold" reaches at least $ 80 per barrel, and the sanctions are not lifted, the euro rate for the Russian Federation will not look rosy.

Western experts believe that in 2017 oil will cost $ 60 at best, and the Ministry of Economic Development has set the mark at 40 conventional units. It's too early to talk about lifting the sanctions. The Russians hope that the new US president will establish contact with Vladimir Putin and facilitate their cancellation. Saxo Bank analysts also support this idea.

Financial analysts make different assumptions about the future of the European currency. The most rosy forecasts belong to the American banking holding Morgan Stanley. His experts predict the economic decline of the United States, which will not allow the Federal Reserve to raise the dollar rate. Successful work of European banks will also contribute to the strengthening of the euro. The cost of the currency in 2017 will be approximately 80 rubles.

RBC analysts believe that the euro can be purchased for 75 rubles. The Agency for Forecasting the Economy (APECON) calls more modest figures: 70-73 rubles throughout the year, 67-69 - in the summer. But these are just preliminary forecasts. The exchange rate changes every day, and you cannot know in advance what will contribute to its rise or fall.

What do the stars say?

Many people make financial decisions based on advice and clairvoyants. The eminent Russian predictor Pavel Globa promises the collapse of the United States, and therefore the dollar in 2017. His forecast is based on the prophecy of the 44th President of the United States, who will lead the state to decline. The astrologer advises to transfer funds to the Euro currency, the rate of which will remain stable.

We all remember that the Brexit issue continues to put pressure on the European economy and, apparently, in 2017 it will be the main one among the negative factors and current fresh forecasts. Most recently, British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that the government is ready to begin the procedure for leaving the European Union. It must be said that world analysts were skeptical about the exit until the last moment, but Foggy Albion is already preparing a project and a clear exit plan.

The euro exchange rate is already taking this event into account, and that is why the end of last year has become so negative for the currency. In addition, this step was supported by the new US President. Trump publicly stated in one of his speeches that this event will be a landmark for both Britain and the United States, and his country is ready to start a new era in economic relations, and even discuss the issue of a free trade zone. What does this mean for the euro exchange rate, and the future current forecast for the currency.

First, the EU is reluctant to provide trade and economic preferences for British enterprises. This is understandable, since the question immediately arises for other countries considering the same step. And they are, and according to forecasts in 2017, their number can only be added.

Secondly, if trade and economic relations with the United States move towards rapprochement, then Europe may lose a significant part of the sales market, and this is a rich and stable client. Losing it will hit the euro hard this year, and will further depreciate it globally.

Third, the tough rhetoric on the part of EU officials suggests that the issue of further economic cooperation between Britain in the previous framework has too many contradictions on one side and the other. If it drags on, then the fall of the euro will be long and impressive.

Euro exchange rate forecast for the year and the Fed's actions

In turn, the European Central Bank continues to keep rates on the euro exchange rate at historically low levels. In the future, according to forecasts, such a policy will lead to the loss of the leadership of the euro currency in the world and a gradual cooling towards the European economy.

Euro exchange rate for 2017 forecast the most recent and nearest

In our forecast, one more factor remains to be touched upon - this is politics. As you know, elections will be held in Germany and France in the near future.

The leaders of the pre-election race in France have already been determined. The current president, François Hollande, is not taking part because he understands that there is no chance. In part, citizens' dissatisfaction is associated with the introduction and support of sanctions against Russia. Business has lost enough to voice no confidence in the government and change the vector. And the country's policy can really change it towards Russia and the East.

Over the past three years, Europe has demonstrated unity in the observance of the world order and international laws on the right of sovereignty and independence. But now, as they say, the "stomach" is gaining the upper hand over the right, and lobbyists for lifting sanctions against Russia are more and more heard with their calls.

The future election campaign in Germany also raises great concern. The country is preparing to fend off hacker attacks during the election period and defend its sovereignty in cyberspace. Apparently not without reason. German Chancellor Angela Merkel managed to contain the dissatisfaction with the policy of Germany towards migrants and the economy throughout 2016. But in 2017 it looks like it will be even more difficult. If the European outpost is surrendered, then alas, the forecasts regarding the collapse of the euro in 2017 will come true and the EU economy will face serious shocks.

These reasons, which are given above, are, in our opinion, the main ones that will affect the euro rate in 2017, perhaps new ones will be added to them, since it is unclear what policy towards the European Union the new US president will pursue. In any case, we recommend that you take this forecast into account when trading the euro currency on forex and not make active trading decisions in the first quarter of this year.

The European currency retains good potential for further strengthening, which is reflected in the forecasts for the euro exchange rate for autumn 2017.

The improvement in macroeconomic dynamics in the eurozone has an impact on investor behavior. In addition, the reduction in political uncertainty has a positive effect on the position of the European currency.

Strengthening bet

During 2017, the European currency strengthened against the dollar by 5.9%, which turns into a stable trend. Investors' preferences are associated with positive election results in European countries, which reduces the risks for the continued existence of the EU. In addition, the recovery of the pace of economic development in the eurozone will allow the ECB to move to winding down the quantitative easing program. At the same time, the dynamics of the US economy in 2017 lags behind analysts' expectations, which negatively affects the positions of the dollar.

HSBC representatives underline the change in investor sentiment towards the US currency. If earlier speculators preferred to bet on a strong dollar, then the absence of real reforms announced by Donald Trump reflected on the capital outflow in favor of the euro. As a result, the quotes of the European currency overcame the level of 1.11 USD / EUR and will continue to move to the level of 1.15.

Barclays analysts also expect a gradual strengthening of the European currency. American banks recovered faster after the 2008 crisis, which led to the strengthening of the dollar in previous periods. However, growing uncertainty for the US economy in 2017 will help weaken the dollar over the medium term.

In 2017, the ECB will be able to move to reduce the volume of purchases of financial assets aimed at stimulating economic development. Despite the preservation of the rate at zero level, the curtailment of the quantitative easing policy will strengthen the position of the euro in the short term. At the same time, the growth of the FRS key rate will lag behind analysts' expectations, which will play against the dollar.

The negative factor for the euro remains the lack of consensus with the UK on the final Brexit terms. Foggy Albion and the EU cannot agree on the final amounts of compensation, as well as the further format of trade relations and migration policy. As a result, the eurozone economy may suffer additional losses, which is reflected in the activity of investors.

In the fall of 2017, the euro against the ruble will also move upward, analysts' forecast warns. At the same time, the scale of changes in currency quotes will depend on the volatility of the oil market.

Euro versus ruble

This fall, the euro will continue to strengthen its position against the ruble, experts predict. Against the background of the positive dynamics of the European currency, the change in the value of the ruble will be caused by fluctuations in prices on the oil market.

Despite the agreed measures on the part of OPEC aimed at limiting oil production, oil prices will not be able to overcome the $ 50 / bbl bar. The volume of oil consumption is growing at an insufficient pace to level the existing surplus. At the same time, exporters who have not joined the agreement continue to increase the volume of supplies of "black gold", which preserves the existing imbalances. First of all, oil prices remain under pressure as a result of the growth of shale oil production in the United States.

In addition to oil, Western sanctions and a decline in the attractiveness of domestic assets have a negative impact on the ruble's position. The outflow of speculative capital as a result of the Central Bank rate cut will reduce the value of the ruble in the short term. In addition, the domestic budget deficit remains high, forcing the government to seek additional sources to finance existing spending. A moderate depreciation of the ruble will increase the state treasury revenue from energy exports, making it easier for the government to meet budget targets.

They are demonstrating a serious decline and at the moment there is a potential to see a continuation of the fall in the opar quotes and the decline in the value of the European currency.

As you can see, from the weekly EUR / RUB chart, the pair is trading as part of the development of the descending Wolfe wave pattern with a potential the goal of reducing at the level of 50-48 rubles per Euro... However, to continue this decline, it is important to pass the key support area at the level of 62-60 rubles per euro.

The price of the euro may well fall like this due to the fall against all world currencies, even the EUR / USD currency pair is currently testing the 1.05 area, and it is likely to expect a decline to the 0.92 area early next year. Cancellation of the option will be a strong growth and return of quotations above the level of 75 rubles per euro.

The next option is the completion of the formation of the bullish Shark pattern on the weekly chart of the Euro / Ruble pair. As you can see, the nearest support area at 0.886% is above the 54 ruble area, it is likely that we will see a test of this area, and the beginning of a reversal of the EUR RUB currency pair as part of the start of the Shark model.

The purpose of working out the model is the area above the level of 76 rubles per euro from where the potential for decline appears again. However, one should not exclude a rapid decline to the area below the level of 47 rubles per dollar, from which one should also expect the same rapid growth in the pairs.

On the monthly EUR / RUB chart, the pair continues to work out the Failed Swing Forex reversal model, which implies a tight test of the 57 rubles per Euro area with a breakdown of this area by closing prices. The values ​​of the indicator of relative strength have already broken through the support area, but one should not exclude an attempt to correct the broken area and only after that the continuation of the decline in the euro / ruble quotes.

Thus, it assumes an attempt to continue the decline in the currency pair with a potential target at the level of 57-50 rubles per euro, from where it is quite possible to expect the start of growth in quotations with the nearest target at the level above the area of ​​75 rubles per euro with a probable test of the 80 rubles area.

The parity of the euro and the dollar is real and can be achieved in the next six months.

The ECB's trade-weighted euro index fell to its lowest levels since March this year, mainly due to the 4% depreciation of the single currency against the dollar following the US elections. Investors tuned in to the fiscal support and economic stimulus promised by Trump and bought the dollar across the entire market spectrum. But now Europe can also contribute to the weakening of the euro, while some analysts believe that the euro / dollar may reach in the near future.

How big are the European political and financial risks for the euro exchange rate? Is the forecast for the parity of the euro against the dollar realistic in the near future, or will it remain only on paper? Alexander Kuptsikevich, an analyst at FxPro, commented on the question from Photo Trader magazine.

Parity is quite possible

- The parity of the euro and the dollar is real and can be achieved in the next six months... However, talk about parity is not new, back in 2015 the EURUSD pair was twice at the same levels as now, but bounced to the area above 1.14.

The rebound in the pair was helped by a revision by the Federal Reserve of its initially very hawkish plans for four rate hikes in 2016. These expectations turned out to be even stronger than the expansion and extension of the ECB's QE program, without causing a weakening of the single currency. Quite the opposite, it was a turbulent time for the global economy and markets were using the euro as a safe haven currency, buying bonds from the region's strong economies. There was a similar movement in the USDJPY pair, so the euro in this case should not be considered as some kind of special safe haven.

The parity of the euro against the dollar will follow immediately after 1.05

But now the likelihood of a further decline under 1.05 has grown significantly, after which the next significant target will already be parity due to several factors.

First, the markets clearly felt strong resistance. observed in the pair on the way to 1.15. The collapse of EURUSD during the 2014/15 dollar rally passed from levels at 1.3950 and fizzled out just below 1.0500 simply because there was no one to sell euros for dollars. A period was required to consolidate and take root the idea of ​​the pair's transition to another psychological stage from “clearly more expensive” to “slightly more expensive” than the dollar.

Fluctuations in the euro all this time corrected quite well with a correction near 76.4% of the initial movement and strong (but temporary support) at 100% of the first impulse. Further follow-up of Fibonacci suggests the possibility of a fall in the pair to 0.83. This is a very distant goal, and is seen as feasible only under the conditions of very serious suffering in the eurozone in comparison with the prosperity of the United States.

What could be the driver of a new round of decline in the near future?

First and foremost, of course, is the change in political attitudes in Europe. Technocrats from country to country are losing ground to populists. And the latter are currently inclined to blame free trade and common institutions for the lack of prosperity in their countries.

The plunge of the single currency below parity can be a long-term excellent moment to buy euros for dollars

Next year there will be elections in France, Germany, probably in Italy. These are the largest countries in the eurozone, and Britain's example has been encouraging for centrifugal forces in these countries. Fears of a change in the political agenda alone will be enough to provoke a loss of 7-12% in the common currency.

The most obvious and predictable driver of the euro decline is divergence of monetary policy... The ECB continues to press the pedal of monetary easing. The eurozone economy demonstrated resilience to external shocks in 2016, but is very far from those indicators that would have forced the ECB to curtail its stimulus.

Inflation has started to grow, but it is unlikely to reach its goal even in 2017. At the same time, unemployment remains high at 9.6%, while retail sales are growing almost imperceptibly. One of the region's few growth points is foreign trade. The balance sheet surplus has grown significantly in recent years thanks to the weakening of the euro. Of the developed countries, only the eurozone manages to use the weakness of the currency to its advantage, and Britain and the United States have not been able to fundamentally turn the deficit into a surplus - they simply no longer had production capacity. So the weakness of the euro is beneficial to economic activity in the region, although it does not cause a noticeable spike in inflation. This allows the ECB to take advantage of similar "side effects" of soft monetary policy.

Conclusions in favor of the fall of the euro

My arguments in favor of reducing the euro are unambiguous - the single currency will remain under pressure in the near future. Now I will say a few words about the longer term.

The Eurozone is still on the path of growth (unemployment is falling, inflation is growing), so in 2017, the ECB, in my opinion, will announce the end of QE, and when inflation reaches 2%, there will be talk of an increase. This could happen by early 2018.

The single currency also receives demand due to the growth of the economies of the EU countries and the growing foreign trade surplus. It should also be remembered that the ECB has historically pursued a tighter monetary policy than the Fed, due to the genetic fear of inflation by the “German bloc”. So in my opinion, the single currency's plunge below parity could be a long-term excellent moment to buy euros for dollars. True, political risks can cause EURUSD to plunge directly to 0.83, just as they did not spare the British pound earlier in 2016. However, the euro will be higher in three years, and probably in seven years, than it is now.